THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Friday, September 24, 2010

“AMERICAN SHOWCASE 2010” BRINGS THE BEST OF AMERICA TO CAGAYAN DE ORO AND MINDANAO

The U.S. Embassy’s Commercial Service Office in Manila organized the “American Showcase 2010 at the Oro Best Expo.” The largest exhibition ever organized in the growing business districts of Cagayan de Oro and Northern Mindanao, American Showcase 2010 featured 15 U.S. companies at the ORO Best Expo located in The Atrium-Limketkai Center, Cagayan de Oro City from September 16-18, 2010.

The American Showcase 2010 highlighted the products and services offered by the 15 U.S. exhibiting companies: Amway Philippines LLC, Cargill Philippines, Cisco Systems, Inc., Citibank/Citibank Savings, Cooper Industries, Dunkin Donuts, Hewlett Packard Philippines, IBM Philippines, Getcre8ive (a delegate of Getty Images), Grainger, Oracle Philippines, OSG Ship Management Manila, Inc., Salvtug Group of Companies, Snap On Tools, and Stevens-Henager College. CalEnergy Philippines also participated as an event partner.

The American Showcase also provided business visitors free seminars on “Doing Business with the U.S.A.” on September 16. U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission Leslie Bassett, and other speakers addressed the seminars on topics such as “The U.S. Commercial Service Role in Promoting U.S. Business in the Philippines;” “Express Transportation: Keys to Modernization of Global Trade Practices,” and “U.S. Business Visa Requirements.” On September 17 and 18, the exhibiting U.S. companies offered free product/technology presentations.

Cagayan de Oro is an important market for U.S. companies outside of Manila. The U.S. Embassy works with these U.S. firms to strengthen U.S.-Philippine business ties and to showcase the best of America in the Philippines. This event was presented in cooperation with the Cagayan de Oro Chamber of Commerce and Industry Foundation (Oro Chamber).

For business partnerships and other product inquiries, please contact the individual U.S. companies:

  • Amway Philippines, L.L.C
  • Cargill Philippines
  • Cisco Systems
  • Citibank N.A./Citibank Savings
  • Cooper Industries
  • Dunkin Donuts
  • Hewlett Packard Philippines
  • IBM Philippines
  • Getcre8ive, a delegate of Getty Images, Inc.
  • Grainger
  • Oracle Philippines
  • OSG Ship Management Manila Inc.
  • Salvtug
  • Snap On Tools
  • Stevens-Henager Colleges

Philippines Markets: 24 September 2010 (as of 12:00pm)

24 September 2010

USD/PhP: 44.05 (as of 12:00pm) PSEi: 4078.87 + 11.44
USD/JPY: 84.52 PFINC: 942.31 - 3.20
EUR/USD: 1.3346 BDO: 60.00 - 0.40
GBP/USD: 1.5683 BPI: 54.10 - 0.90
PDSTF3M: 4.2077 MBT: 71.75 - 0.15
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Philippine Interest Rate Outlook

Secondary market rates moved down by an average of 15 basis points week on week after the government posted a better than expected budget surplus during August, market players were expecting a deficit. The surplus was at 1.3 billion pesos as the government tightened its belt meet target deficit for the year. Except for last year, August had been a surplus month for the government since 2005.

Expect interest rates to move sideways with downward bias next week as market liquidity continues to support demand for government securities.

Philippine Equities Outlook

Local shares rose 2.50 percent week-on-week to 4078.87 as investors continue to snap up Philippine shares as valuations remains attractive compared to the region. Mining shares continue to outperform the market as gold prices continue to soar as US Fed suggested they are still prepared to do quantitative easing.

Chartwise, the week’s close at 4078.87 continue to support further upticks towards the 4,150-4,200 levels in the near-term. Immediate support now lie at the 4,000 levels. A break below the said levels could create the much awaited 'pause' possibly towards the 3,800-3850 levels. Technical market indicator RSI implies that the market is quite overbought and may adjust soon.


Philippine Peso Outlook

As of 12:00 pm, the local currency is trading at 44.05, slightly stronger than last week’s 44.21 close due to US dollar weakness against the major currencies after the Fed kept key target rate at historic lows. Portfolio flows remained supportive as valuations remain cheap compared to the region.

Chartwise, the current peso movement suggests a possbile double-bottom was formed at the 43.88 levels. This implies a a bounce possibly retesting the 44.25-44.50 levels in the week ahead. Only a break below the 43.88 levels will trigger further tests towards the 43.00 - 43.50 levels

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief 09/23/10

BSP watching increasing risk appetite, flows

INTEREST RATE differentials between the United States and emerging markets that boost risk appetite and capital inflows can complicate monetary policy, Philippine central bank governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said on Tuesday.

The Philippines is Southeast Asia’s best-performing stock market this year, rising nearly 34% to record highs, boosted by foreign inflows which have helped drive the peso to two-year highs against the dollar. Foreign portfolio fund flows also hit a 15-month high in August.

"We are mindful of the impact of the interest differentials being in favor of EMEs [emerging market economies] on global risk appetite and capital flows, as this could complicate monetary policy going forward," Mr. Tetangco said via text to reporters after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero.


Meralco bills to rise P0.0314/kWh in Oct.

REGULATORS HAVE allowed the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) to get back P3.371 billion in costs for power obtained from the spot market in 2006 and 2007, in a move that will raise power bills by P0.0314 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) starting next month.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) previously disallowed Meralco from charging the amount, requiring the utility to buy no more than 10% of its power requirements from the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), where prices are often higher than those of direct supply contracts.

In the decision dated Aug. 16, which was released only yesterday, the ERC reversed itself and noted that WESM rules only require utilities to get "at least" 10% of the their power requirements from the spot market, meaning there should be no cap.

The conflict stemmed from a provision in the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 that utilities cannot obtain more than 90% of their power requirements from bilateral contracts in order to reflect the true cost of power.

The "disallowed" portion of Meralco’s WESM purchases from August 2006 to May 2007 amounted to P2.7 billion, but the amount to be recovered was raised to reflect interest, ERC Executive Director Francis Saturnino C. Juan said in a phone interview.

Meralco had argued before the ERC that WESM costs are pass-on charges and should automatically charged to consumers, and that putting caps on WESM purchases would undermine the aim of opening up the power sector.


U.S. Stocks Fall on Technology, Banking Profit Outlook

U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest decline in two weeks, as a weakening earnings outlook for technology and financial companies overshadowed speculation the Federal Reserve will take steps to bolster the economy.

Adobe Systems Inc. tumbled 19 percent after estimating sales that missed analysts’ projections. PMC-Sierra Inc. dropped 6 percent as the chipmaker reduced its third-quarter revenue forecast. Microsoft Corp. sank 2.2 percent after announcing a dividend increase that was smaller than some analysts expected. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lost at least 2.2 percent, pacing a slump in financial shares, as Deutsche Bank AG cut its earnings estimates for the banks.

The S&P 500 slid 0.5 percent, the most since Sept. 7, to 1,134.28 at 4 p.m. in New York, a day after the Federal Reserve said it’s willing to ease monetary policy further to spur growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21.72 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,739.31.

“We’re navigating the slow-growth economy and trying to avoid pitfalls,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Private Bank, which oversees $55 billion. “The Fed will do whatever it can to avoid a double-dip recession, but it can’t keep on buying debt forever. This is a ‘reflation’ story of weaker dollar, higher commodities prices and lower interest rates. This is not an environment that suggests a huge rally for stocks.”

The S&P 500 has surged 11 percent from this year’s low on July 2 as concern eased that U.S. unemployment and less spending from indebted European nations would stall the global economic recovery. The gauge has gained 1.7 percent so far this year, leaving it 6.8 percent below its peak for 2010.


Treasury 10-Year Notes Rise for Fourth Day on Bets Fed Will Buy More Debt

Treasury 10-year notes rose for a fourth day in the longest stretch of gains since June as traders speculated that the Federal Reserve is preparing to increase purchases of U.S. debt.

The yield on the two-year note touched a record low for a second day after the Fed said yesterday it’s “prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery.” The central bank bought $2.07 billion of Treasuries maturing from March 2013 to April 2014 today as part of its effort to keep borrowing costs low.

“There is an underlying bid in the market as the bull trend in Treasuries remains intact,” said Martin Mitchell, head government bond trader in Baltimore at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., a brokerage firm. “The Fed has tipped their hand that they are likely to initiate a larger-scale asset-purchase program in the future. If the Fed becomes a larger buyer, the Treasury market can only go higher.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.56 percent at 4:04 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.625 percent security maturing in August 2020 gained 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 19/32.

The 10-year note yield touched 2.50 percent, the lowest level since Sept. 1. The last time the yield fell for four days in a row was on June 30. The 2-year yield climbed 1 basis point to 0.43 percent after dropping earlier to a record 0.41 percent. The 30-year bond yield fell 4 basis points to 3.74 percent.


Crude Oil Declines After Report Shows Unexpected Increase in Inventories

Crude oil declined for a second day after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased.

Crude supplies rose 970,000 barrels to 358.3 million last week, 13 percent above the five-year average, the department said today. Inventories were forecast to fall 1.75 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles also climbed.

“Those unexpected builds have taken the wind out of our sails,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The report reminded us of the large supply overhang.”

Crude oil for November delivery fell 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $74.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the contract’s lowest settlement since Aug. 31. Futures have gained 4.4 percent in the past year.


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief

Aquino to abolish 10 gov’t offices

Palace says move will save P304M a year


To cut costs, President Benigno Aquino III is moving to abolish 10 agencies that contributed to a bloated bureaucracy under the watch of his predecessor, former President and now Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

The abolition of the agencies, including the Presidential Anti-Graft Commission (PAGC) and the Presidential Anti-Smuggling Group (PASG), would save the government some P304.62 million a year, Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr. said Thursday.

“We are abolishing 10 of the 17 locally funded projects, which are no longer relevant or which are duplicative of the functions of the other projects,” he said in a budget hearing of the House appropriations committee.

Priority programs

The amount would then go to priority programs and projects of the Office of the President in 2011, he added.

The other agencies sought to be abolished are the Mindanao Development Council, the Office of the North Luzon Quadrangle Area, the Office of External Affairs, the Minerals Development

Council, the Luzon Urban Beltway Super Region, the Bicol River Basin Watershed Management Project, the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Global Warming and Climate Change, and the Office of the Presidential Adviser on New Government Centers.

Ochoa did not say what will happen to the personnel of the agencies that would be abolished.

The OP is retaining the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace Process, Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Commission, Presidential Visiting Forces Agreement Commission, Commission on Information and Communications Technology, Edsa People Power Commission, Commission on Maritime Affairs, Philippine Truth Commission, and Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning Office.


BSP explains intervention

THE PHILIPPINE central bank is acting in the foreign exchange market to reduce the peso’s volatility but is allowing fundamentals to move the currency, a central bank official said yesterday.

The peso hit a two-year high against the dollar last Wednesday and is up more than 5% this year, supported by strong portfolio inflows and remittances from overseas workers.

“We continue to make our presence felt in the market to make sure we reduce volatilities and ensure the fundamental movements of the peso,” Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo told Reuters.

The peso softened to around P44 per dollar from an opening of P43.88 per dollar after the comments, with traders wary of intervention not only from Manila but other countries in Southeast Asia as currency gains put pressure on exporters.

Anaemic growth and heavy debt burdens across the West and Japan are encouraging an influx of capital inflows to emerging markets as global investors search for better yields.

On Wednesday, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said interest rate differentials between the United States and emerging markets that have boosted risk appetite and capital flows could complicate monetary policy.

Separately, Mr. Guinigundo told television channel ANC in an interview late Wednesday the peso’s rise was helping to mitigate inflation pressures.

“That is not good news for exporters and OFW (overseas Filipino worker) families, but to a large extent and to the extent that we still import oil and other raw materials, that could help both exporters and Filipino overseas abroad keep up with those increases in exchange rate.”

The central bank has forecast average inflation of 4% this year and 3.25% next year, within the government’s targets.

Mr. Guinigundo said the central bank, which will meet on Oct. 7 to review policy, saw no urgent need to adjust policy rates as inflation was under control.

“The central bank sees no compelling reason to adjust rates at this point given the favorable outlook for inflation.”

The rate has been at a record low of 4% since July 2009. The Philippines is one of the few Asian countries not to have raised interest rates since the end of the global financial crisis.

Mr. Guinigundo said in the television interview that rates could be kept steady as long as inflation stayed within target of 3 to 5% for 2011 and 2012.

“Of course at this point, all available information to us would indicate inflation would just be about 4%, so that means we can afford to keep our policy rates steady for for next two years,” he said.


U.S. Stocks Rise as Technology Rally Overshadows Jobless Claims

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its longest drop in a month, as a deteriorating profit outlook for banks and an increase in jobless claims overshadowed a rally in technology shares.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. fell more than 2 percent as Bank of America Corp. cut profit projections and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the U.S. mortgage market is “absolutely broken.” Real estate companies in the S&P 500 slumped 2.7 percent as a group. Apple Inc. rose for the 17th time in 19 days, briefly passing PetroChina Co. to become the world’s second-largest company by market value.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent to 1,124.83 at 4 p.m. in New York, retreating for a third day, the longest losing streak since Aug. 24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 76.89 points, or 0.7 percent, to 10,662.42.


Treasuries Climb on Speculation Federal Reserve Will Increase Debt Buying

Treasuries gained, pushing the 10- year note yield below 2.50 percent for the first time in three weeks, on speculation the Federal Reserve may increase purchases of U.S. debt to support the economy.

The 10-year note advanced for a fifth day in its longest winning streak in about a year as initial jobless claims unexpectedly climbed last week. Two-year note yields were within a basis point of the record low two days after the central bank said it’s willing to ease monetary policy further.

“For the next two or three weeks, every single economic statistic will be picked over, and anything showing weakness will lead to market rallies and lower yields,” said Ray Remy, head of fixed income in New York at Daiwa Securities Group Inc., one of the 18 primary dealers that trade directly with the central bank. “Everybody will expect the Fed to step in, step in at any second.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.56 percent at 5:17 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.625 percent security maturing in August 2020 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 18/32.

The yield touched 2.48 percent, the lowest level since Sept. 1. The 2-year yield slid 2 basis points to 0.42 percent, compared with the record 0.41 percent reached yesterday. The 30- year bond yield fell 2 basis points to 3.73 percent.


Oil Falls as Increase in U.S. Jobless Claims Prompts Concerns About Demand

Oil declined in New York after a U.S. government report showed that initial jobless claims rose for the first time in a month, signaling fuel demand in the world’s largest crude consuming nation may falter.

Futures gave back yesterday’s 0.6 percent gain after the Labor Department reported claims increased by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended Sept. 18, as the unemployment rate holds near a 26-year high.

The November contract lost as much as 51 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $74.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $74.69 at 8:20 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, it climbed 47 cents to $75.18. Prices are down 5.8 percent this year.


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Research Desk

23 September 2010

USD/PhP: 44.12 + 0.24 PSEi: 4067.43 + 13.38
USD/JPY: 84.57 PFINC: 945.51 + 8.86
EUR/USD: 1.3358 BDO: 60.40 - 0.25
GBP/USD: 1.5655 BPI: 55.00 - 0.40
PDSTF3M: 4.2346 MBT: 71.90 - 0.10
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


RP stocks firm up on infra, mining plays

Local stocks firmed up on Thursday as cash-rich investors thrived on an infrastructure and mining play during the session.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 13.38 points or 0.33 percent to close at 4,067.43.

There were 90 advancers against 56 decliners at the local stock market.

Value turnover was about P5.75 billion.

Source: www.inquirer.net

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

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