New outlook upgrade for RP2010-2011 GDP growth forecasts raised by World Bank THE WORLD BANK yesterday became the latest institution to raise its outlook for the Philippines, estimating 2010 and 2011 growth to hit 6.2% and 5.0%, respectively, from the 4.4% and 4% forecast in a June report. It extended the 5.0% prognosis to 2012 and said that while growth would moderate from the strong 2010 first-half result of 7.9%, a new government and a global recovery offered the country "a window of opportunity to embark on structural reforms to improve its development outcomes." The revised forecasts came as the Washington-based lender also hiked its 2010 East Asia outlook to 8.9% from 8.7%, citing a recovery in trade and private consumption. The 2011 forecast for the region, however, was lowered to 7.8% from 8.0%. The Bank’s new 2010 Philippine projection just tops the government’s 5.0-6.0% target. It follows the International Monetary Fund’s announcement earlier this month of a 7% outlook, up from 6% previously, and is identical to the Asian Development Bank’s estimate of 6.2%, raised from 5%, released in September. The 2011 forecast, meanwhile, is lower than the government’s target of 7.0-8.0%. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga, in a text message, said the adjustment to the 2010 goal was in line with government expectations. "We hope this optimism will carry us forward as the administration moves on [with] its policies and programs," he told BusinessWorld. Near-term growth prospects, the World Bank said in its Philippines update, "are favorable." But it said strong first-half growth would ease given the withdrawal of stimulus measures and a moderation in global growth. "Assuming no material downward revision on first-half GDP (gross domestic product), growth is projected to slow from 6.2% in 2010 to 5% in both 2011 and 2012," it said. "Sustained structural reforms will be needed, however, to increase the medium-term potential growth rate to more than 4-5%," it added. The Philippines is faced with the task of ensuring that growth translates to reduced poverty, officials said. "The challenge remains in the inclusive side of growth... there is still a lot to be done to fight hunger and poverty in the Philippines," World Bank Country Director Bert Hofman told a briefing. | 
