THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Morning Brief: 06 October 2010

REIT plans face delay as BIR urges rule change

LISTED COMPANIES’ plans to set up real estate investment trusts (REITs) could be delayed as the tax bureau is insisting that corporate regulators amend rules implementing Republic Act (RA) 9856.

The law, which took effect last December but has yet to be implemented, establishes the framework for the creation of REITs -- corporations that use a pool of investor funds to purchase and manage real estate assets.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last May approved RA 9856’s implementing rules. The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), however, has held off issuing the relevant tax guidelines, insisting that the regulator order REITs to sell more shares to the public.

"What we want is for SEC to amend the rules. We have already asked them but they have yet to reply to us. They have to amend it first," BIR Commissioner Kim S. Jacinto-Henares said.

The Finance department, which has raised concerns over foregone revenues from incentives granted by RA 9856, wants the SEC to raise the amount of REIT shares to be offered to the public to at least 50% from 33.3%.

"This is to make sure that we develop the capital market," Ms. Jacinto-Henares said.

SEC officials were not immediately available for comment.

Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima yesterday said: "I asked [SEC chairman] Ms. [Fe B.] Barin to convene the commission and tackle my request because without it (the 50% public float), there will never be capital recycling which is the main goal of REIT."

Among others, the public float should be increased to 67% in three years, Mr. Purisima said.

"I believe the REIT will not push through without the BIR implementing rules...," he added.

Property giants have expressed interest in REITs. Last week, Ayala Land, Inc. said it would set up AyalaLand Commercial REIT, Inc. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. and Robinsons Land Corp. have also said they would tap the sector.

Corazon B. Guidote, SM Investments Corp. investor relations chief, yesterday said the company had no choice but to wait for the BIR to issue the relevant tax rules.


K+12 won’t happen until after Aquino term

The K+12 is going to be K+6+4+2.

Simply put, there will be six years of elementary school, four years of junior high school and two years of senior high school.

That was the plan that the Department of Education (DepEd) unveiled Tuesday to put the country’s basic education up to speed with the rest of the world, meaning 12 years from the current 10 years.

It’s not going to happen though until the Aquino administration’s term is over in 2016, when funding and transition measures are put in place, DepEd officials said.

Education Secretary Armin Luistro unveiled the 12-year model called K-6-4-2, the basic education cycle the department had been working on to fulfill a campaign promise by President Benigno Aquino III, to coincide with World Teachers’ Day.

The program includes, not counting kindergarten, six years in elementary (Grades 1 to 6), four years in junior high school (Grades 7 to 10) and the additional two years in senior high (Grades 11 to 12) for specialized learning of employable skills.

The DepEd plans to create a K+12 Task Force, chaired by the department but with representation from different stakeholders, to flesh out details of the program’s phased implementation.

4-year transition

Curiously, Mr. Aquino did not mention the plan when he spoke before some 5,000 teachers earlier Tuesday.

As the implementation plan integrates a four-year transition program, the first batch of senior high school students is expected to be in the system by school year 2016-2017, officials said.

“The two years of senior high school intend to provide time for students to consolidate acquired academic skills and competencies. The curriculum will allow specialization in science and technology, music and arts, agriculture and fisheries, sports, business and entrepreneurship,” Luistro said in a news conference.

Planned since 1925

Citing the dismal performance of Filipino graduates, Luistro said the program hoped to lift the quality of Philippine education to international standards and graduate 18-year-olds holistically mature for employment.

This plan has been on the drawing boards since 1925, Luistro said.

The Philippines now is the only country in Asia with a 10-year education cycle, he said, falling behind compliance with international accords on education equivalency.

“We envision that our graduates will acquire mastery of basic competencies, be more emotionally mature, be socially aware, proactive and involved in public and civic affairs and be adequately prepared for the world of work, entrepreneurship or higher education, and be legally employable for better earnings,” Luistro said.

Luistro’s announcement capped two months of discussions with academics, education reform advocates and DepEd officials and marked the start of regional consultations that would culminate in a national summit early next year.

Law amendment

Government will then decide whether to pursue the plan, which officials said would also require the amendment of a 1982 law fixing basic education to at most 11 years.

Critics argued that the two-year extension was premature given the still unresolved shortages in classrooms, study materials, teachers and other resources, along with a high dropout rate.

K+12 supporters said that the extended cycle aimed to give students more time to study a curriculum that was crammed in the current 10 years.

“The biggest resource you are adding is time. Ten years is not enough. If we’re so smart going to 10, how come we’re not rich? How come we’re not more successful? We’ve fooled ourselves into thinking we can do it in 10 years,” said former Education Undersecretary Juan Miguel Luz.

Under the present system, Filipinos have to learn 20 percent more worth of lessons per year than children their age in other countries, he said.

Filipinos in general score dismally in achievement tests, and in international exams in math and science.


Stocks Rise on Service-Industry Data, Bank of Japan's Move

U.S. stocks climbed, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since May, after American service industries expanded more than forecast and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will join Japan’s efforts to stoke economic growth.

Boeing Co., Bank of America Corp. and DuPont Co. rose more than 3 percent, leading gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average following the Institute for Supply Management’s report and the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will cut rates and buy bonds. Banks rallied as JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they will likely beat third-quarter profit estimates. Chevron Corp. rose 2.6 percent after the oil company said it will buy back stock.

The S&P 500 rallied 2.1 percent, the most since Sept. 24, to 1,160.75 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index must gain 0.4 percent to reach its level on May 5, the day before the 20- minute crash that briefly erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares. The Dow advanced 193.45 points, or 1.8 percent, to 10,944.72. Both measures reached the highest levels since May.

“Investors are voting they’re a little more comfortable with the business outlook,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. “Investors are trying to get out of currencies and into anything else that will retain wealth while monetary authorities try to bludgeon currencies down.”


Treasury 30-Year Bond Declines on Bet That Fed Will Buy Shorter Maturities

Treasury 30-year bonds fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will buy shorter-maturity debt if policy makers expand purchases of government securities to sustain the economic recovery.

The two-year Treasury yield matched a record low before an employment report Oct. 8 forecast to show no change in overall payrolls. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the first round of asset purchases, called quantitative easing, improved the economy and more buys would help the economy. The Fed bought $5.19 billion of U.S. notes due from September 2016 to May 2017 today in a program of reinvesting mortgage-holding proceeds.

“The Fed is likely to buy Treasuries concentrated in the intermediate part of the curve,” said Richard Bryant, senior vice president in fixed income at MF Global Inc. in New York, a broker of exchange-traded futures. “In buying back Treasuries, they are unlikely to extend much of their purchases past the 10- year. The market is out in front of the Fed to a decent degree.”

The 30-year bond yield rose 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.74 percent at 4:28 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It earlier touched 3.76 percent, the highest level since Sept. 30. The price of the 3.875 percent security due in August 2040 fell 17/32, or $5.31 per $1,000 face amount, to 102 14/32.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note slipped 1 basis point to 2.47 percent. It touched 2.43 percent, the lowest level since Aug. 25. Two-year notes yielded 0.3987 percent, matching the record low set yesterday.


Crude Oil Rises on Port Closures, Speculation of Growth in U.S.

Oil dropped from a five-month high in New York after an industry-funded report showed increased inventories of crude in the U.S., the second-largest energy consuming nation.

Futures gave back some of yesterday’s 1.7 percent advance after the American Petroleum Institute said stockpiles increased by 4.44 million barrels last week, the biggest gain in five weeks. An Energy Department report today may show supplies rose by 413,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The November contract declined as much as 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $82.51 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $82.54 at 9:11 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday it advanced $1.35 to $82.82, the highest settlement since May 3. Prices are up 4 percent this year.

Oil surged yesterday on speculation that central banks will keep stoking economic growth and as the dollar fell against the euro. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters commodities as an alternative investment.


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Philippines Markets: 05 October 2010 (as of 12:00 pm)

05 October 2010

USD/PhP: 43.85 (as of 12:00pm) PSEi: 4171.87 - 16.33
USD/JPY: 83.51 PFINC: 949.80 - 3.43
EUR/USD: 1.3647 BDO: 60.50 - 0.10
GBP/USD: 1.5814 BPI: 55.85 + 0.05
PDSTF3M: 4.1212 MBT: 72.45 - 1.15
Prices as of 12:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Philippine Inflation Slows, Easing Pressure on Rates
By Max Estayo

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Philippine inflation slowed to a 10-
month low in September, giving the central bank room to keep its
benchmark interest rate at a record low.
Consumer prices increased 3.5 percent from a year earlier,
after a 4 percent gain in August, the National Statistics Office
in Manila said today. That’s slower than the median estimate of
4 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has kept its key rate unchanged
for more than a year, even as Thailand, Malaysia and India moved
to counter the threats of asset bubbles and rising prices.
Governor Amando Tetangco said Sept. 28 the country’s inflation
environment should “remain subdued during the policy horizon,
barring unforeseen or sudden events,” though the central bank
has sufficient flexibility to address any potential challenges.
“Inflation has had a surprising downside, giving the
central bank a bit of a leeway to hold rates much longer,”
Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Capital Economics (Asia) Pte in
Singapore, said before the report.
Policy makers will meet Oct. 7 to decide on the benchmark
rate, which has been held at 4 percent since July 2009.
Inflation may accelerate as the $160 billion Philippine
economy expands. Gross domestic product will probably grow about
6 percent or more this year, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima
said last week.
The government is seeking investments for commuter railways,
airports and schools to bolster growth, which quickened to a
three-year high of 7.9 percent in the second quarter.
Food, beverage and tobacco costs rose 3.2 percent last
month from a year earlier. Fuel, electricity and water prices
climbed 11.8 percent, easing from 15.3 percent in August.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief

Government weighing peso debt swap in Nov.

THE GOVERNMENT is eyeing a peso bond swap next month, as it seeks to establish benchmarks for long-term securities expected to fund public-private partnership (PPP) projects next year.

"In a month, or so," Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima told reporters when asked about the timing of the local bond swap.

"We want the 20-year and 25-year more liquid," he added, when asked what maturities the government was looking at.

Deputy National Treasurer Eduardo S. Mendiola told reporters after the Treasury bill auction yesterday that invitations for banks to participate in the swap will be sent out "within the month."

"We will start with the [sending of] invitations [to banks] within this month. I am sure it’s within this month," Mr. Mendiola said.

Under the planned swap, Mr. Purisima said holders of five- and 10-year securities will be asked to exchange these for either "20-year or 25-year bonds."

The government will not only extend the maturity of its debts, but will also create liquid long-term papers.

"Once these (long-term securities) are more liquid, people will be more willing to buy the bonds," Mr. Purisima explained.

Moreover, these bonds will also provide "basis for corporations to issue such long loans."

Less than 10% of government bonds outstanding have maturities of more than 10 years, noted the Asian Development Bank in the latest issue of the Asia Bond Monitor.

Liquid, long-term papers are crucial to funding infrastructure projects under the PPP scheme.

The Finance department has said it is looking into the possibility of issuing zero coupon or discount bonds -- which do not pay interest but are redeemed at full face value upon maturity -- through a new entity to finance about 80 projects worth P740 billion lined up under the PPP scheme.

The government will hold a convention next month to present projects to investors.

At least 10 projects worth P127.8 billion under the PPP umbrella are slated to begin next year, while a "longer list" of 71 ventures, including power projects, worth around P612 billion is being finalized for 2012 and beyond.

In a separate interview, National Treasurer Roberto B. Tan said more issuances of 25-year T-bonds are required to set a benchmark.

"We want to deepen it more so that trading and issuance of [long-term bonds in the future] will be more efficient," Mr. Tan said.

He said the government will adjust its bond issuances based on market feedback, which will vary, "depending on investors’ investment objectives."

The last time the Treasury auctioned 25-year bonds was on Sept. 28, when it sold P8.5 billion worth of the papers for 8%. The previous auction was in November last year.

An auction of 25-year papers has been scheduled on Nov. 25.

The Philippines, Asia’s largest sovereign debt issuer, last held a local bond swap in January 2009, when it issued P144.5 billion worth of five-year and seven-year bonds.


Narrow window for tariff perk

50-50 chance seen for US measure favoring RP-made garments

PHILIPPINE GARMENT EXPORTERS will have to wait in suspense as a proposal to have Washington slash tariffs on their shipments has just a 50% chance of being passed despite another round of lobbying last week, a Trade official yesterday said.

US legislators told the Philippine delegation that schedules were tight with the current Congress slated to bow out by early January, Trade Undersecretary Cristino L. Panlilio said on his return from the trip.

"We were able to meet 11 senators and House representatives and nine chiefs of staff. The feedback I got was they are very much in favor of the bill. But I would say there’s a 50-50 chance for its passage," Mr. Panlilio said in a telephone interview, referring to the proposed "Save Our Industries Act of 2009."

The measure seeks duty-free privileges for Philippine-made garments that use American textiles and yarns and also lower tariffs on other apparel shipments.

Preferential duties are needed as the tariffs on garments are among the US’ highest, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The proposed measure has yet to be taken up by the House ways and means committee and Senate finance committee where versions of the bill were filed.

The Confederation of Garment Exporters of the Philippines (CONGEP) is banking on the measure to boost industry sales, which have been stagnating since 2005 when US export quotas were removed in compliance with WTO rules. Garment export sales have remained at roughly $2-2.5 billion per year since the quotas expired. CONGEP has estimated the measure will add $1.1 billion to annual sales during the first year of its implementation and $480 million worth of investments for garment factories in the first two years.

"It’s a bill worth dying for," Mr. Panlilio said.

"[The congressmen we spoke with] are all very much in favor of trying to see if they can endorse it into the legislative agenda for November to December but it will be a tight schedule," he said.

The US Congress is in recess until Nov. 15 to make way for the elections. Its term ends in early January, Mr. Panlilio said.


U.S. Stocks Retreat on Microsoft, Alcoa Ratings Cuts, Economy

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest drop in almost a month, as analyst rating cuts of companies including Microsoft Corp. and Macy’s Inc. triggered caution before the start of the earnings season.

Microsoft slumped 1.9 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. removed its “buy” rating on the shares, citing the company’s struggle to gain market share in mobile devices, while Macy’s fell 1.7 percent after Goldman lowered the department- store chain to “neutral.” Alcoa Inc., the aluminum company that will unofficially start the earnings season on Oct. 7, lost 2.5 percent as Deutsche Bank AG advised selling the shares.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.8 percent to 1,137.03 at the 4 p.m. close in New York. The Dow declined 78.41 points, or 0.7 percent, to 10,751.27 for its biggest retreat since Sept. 7.


Treasuries Advance Amid Factory-Order Decline, Outlook for Fed Purchases

Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to a record low, as government data showing U.S. factory orders declined more than forecast fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will increase asset purchases.

Three-year note yields reached the lowest level since 1962 before an employment report on Oct. 8 that’s forecast to show no change in overall payrolls last month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s first round of large-scale asset purchases improved the economy and that further buying is likely to help more.

“The Fed will go through with some type of quantitative easing,” said James Combias, New York-based head of Treasury trading at Mizuho Financial Group Inc., one of 18 primary dealers that trade Treasuries with the central bank. “A lot of it is priced into the market, so if things don’t pan out that way, the market may be a bit vulnerable. If the employment number is stronger than anticipated, it could knock the market back.”

The two-year yield fell to a record 0.3987 percent before trading at 0.4066 percent, according to Bloomberg generic data. The three-yearyield touched 0.5892 percent.

Ten-year note yields fell 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.48 percent at 4:59 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security due in August 2020 rose 10/32, or $3.13 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 9/32. The yield on the 30-year bond fell less than 1 basis point to 3.71 percent.


Oil Trades Near Eight-Week High After U.S. Stocks Fall, Goods Orders Gain

Oil traded near an eight-week high in New York after equities slipped and orders for U.S. capital goods increased the most since March.

Futures retreated yesterday after stocks declined for the third time in four days and the dollar advanced against the euro. The Commerce Department reported that orders for non-military capital goods excluding planes climbed 5.1 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show crude supplies rose last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“It’s hard to justify a further move higher with stocks down and the dollar stronger,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’ll see if we can consolidate here and keep an eye on this week’s economic reports.”

The November contract traded at $81.39 a barrel, down 8 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:45 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday it lost 11 cents to $81.47. Oil closed at $81.58 on Oct. 1, the highest level since Aug. 5. Prices are up 2.5 percent this year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent to 1,137.03 at the 4 p.m. close in New York, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.7 percent to 10,751.27.


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

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