THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Morning Brief: 05 January 2011


Gov’t to issue $1B in peso bonds
Short-lists 6 foreign banks to handle flotation


THE GOVERNMENT will float $1 billion worth of peso-denominated global bonds to kick off this year’s foreign borrowing program, National Treasurer Roberto B. Tan said yesterday.

Tan told the Inquirer that the Bureau of the Treasury was “still firming up the timing” for the flotation and that it has short-listed six banks to manage the issue.

The list included Citigroup, HSBC, Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and UBS.

“Timing will depend on market conditions, but we are looking at $1 billion, although we have authority to float up to $1.5 billion,” Tan said.

He said the planned amount for the float was “comfortable” and enough to establish a benchmark, referring to interest rates that the market could use as guides for debt instruments of the same length of maturity.

“Proceeds from the bond issuance will be used for budget support and for refinancing of maturing debts,” Tan said, adding that a total of $1.2 billion in foreign borrowings would fall due in February.

The planned flotation will come on the heels of the maiden issue of 10-year peso-denominated global bonds last September, from which the government raised $1 billion or P44.1 billion.

Yesterday, Tan said the planned new issue might include 25-year bonds as well as shorter-term bonds.

The government under the Aquino administration has resorted to peso-global bonds amid efforts to support deficit spending while limiting the country’s exposure to external financial shocks.

In September, investors offered to buy $13.3 billion or more than 13 times the offered volume.

A debt paper is considered global when it is offered to all markets in the world, including North America, Europe and Asia. The government usually borrows from foreign commercial lenders in terms of US dollars, euros and yen.

Back then, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said the issuance was the latest development in the government’s proactive management of external liabilities, particularly with respect to reducing its vulnerability to foreign currency risk.

Purisima said the government wanted to lessen the adverse effects to the debt stock of currency exchange fluctuations by issuing more debt paper in pesos rather than in dollars considering that the latter was more volatile these days.


Aquino set to issue ‘open skies’ order

President Aquino on Tuesday said he would issue an executive order that would pave the way for open skies in the country’s secondary airports.

Foreign carriers may fly into such airports as Cebu, Davao, Zamboanga and Laoag.

“Secondary gateways is the focus of the executive order,” President Aquino told reporters after Rear Admiral Alexander Pama’s assumption of office as the Philippine Navy’s flag officer in command at the Navy headquarters in Manila.

“There is already an existing EO that allowed so-called pocket open skies. So, we are just reaffirming the same,” President Aquino said referring to Executive Order No. 219.

Mr. Aquino said there are already foreign airlines that have expressed interest to participate in the liberalized air travel.

A source close to the drafting of the open skies executive order said flying between domestic routes would remain the exclusive right of local carriers as cabotage would be prohibited.

Cabotage is the privilege to fly passengers between two areas within the country.


U.S. Stocks Drop as Stronger Dollar Weighs on Commodity Producers' Shares

U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreating from the highest level since September 2008, as a stronger dollar weighed on prices of commodities and shares of the companies that produce them.

Stocks pared losses as minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting said the economic recovery wasn’t strong enough to scale back a second round of quantitative easing. Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, declined 3.3 percent as the metal fell the most in six months. Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, lost 0.7 percent as materials producers in the S&P 500 declined 0.5 percent.

The S&P 500 slid 0.1 percent to 1,270.20 at 4 p.m. in New York after losing as much as 0.7 percent. It gained 1.1 percent yesterday for its biggest advance in a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.43 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,691.18 today.

“The market is in a very reactive mode, trading off data points, and that kind of news dependency speaks to a lack of commitment by investors to stay invested,” said Liam Dalton, president of Axiom Capital Management Inc. in New York, which oversees $1.4 billion. “I would be suspicious of any strength early this year because we have conflicting signals and the overall economy may be improving, but it is still not so strong that it can support a major bull market.”


Treasuries Little Changed After Fed's Meeting Minutes Cite Economic Growth

Treasuries were little changed after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed policy makers said economic growth was improving.

U.S. five-year notes earlier led an advance as traders speculated underwriters will repurchase Treasuries used to hedge against moves ininterest rates after completing corporate debt sales. Fed minutes showed officials felt economic gains were “not sufficient” to scale back their plans to buy $600 billion in U.S. debt to spur employment in the second round in a stimulus strategy called quantitative easing.

“In general Fed policy makers think the economic recovery is gaining a little bit of momentum, although the pace is a little bit slow,” said Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, one of the 18 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. “There are certainly some concerns about the economy gaining momentum -- concerns from Treasury investors. That added a bearish tone to the Treasuries market.”

Five-year note yields rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.01 percent at 5:06 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. They earlier rose to 2.04 percent and fell to 1.95 percent. The price of the 2.125 percent security maturing in December 2015 fell 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face value, to 100 18/32.

Ten-year note yields were little changed at 3.33 percent after rising to 3.37 percent and falling to 3.30 percent.


Crude Oil Tumbles the Most in Seven Weeks as Metals Decline, Dollar Gains

Crude oil fell the most in seven weeks in New York as commodities including precious metals tumbled and the dollar strengthened.

Futures dropped from the highest level in 27 months amid signals that a global economic recovery will boost investments in currencies and equities. Gains in the dollar reduce demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency. Oil climbed 8.6 percent last month as the greenback dropped 3 percent.

“Part of what the commodities rally was all about was they were the currency of last resort in terms of storing value,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “Economic prospects are helping the dollar.”

Crude for February delivery fell $2.17, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $89.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Nov. 16. Oil touched $92.58 yesterday, the highest intraday price since Oct. 7, 2008. Futures gained 15 percent last year.

Prices were unchanged from the settlement at $89.38 a barrel after the American Petroleum Institute reported at 4:30 p.m. that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles decreased 7.51 million barrels to 337.1 million.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Philippine Markets: 04 January 2011


04 January 2011

USD/PhP: 43.69 - 0.08 PSEi: 4218.73 + 3.52
USD/JPY: 82.24 PFINC: 964.58 - 2.42
EUR/USD: 1.3362 BDO: 58.00 - 0.85
GBP/USD: 1.5485 BPI: 59.35 - 0.15
PDSTF3M: 1.1635 MBT: 72.95 - 0.05
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters



PH stocks a tad higher
By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—Local stocks were a tad higher on Tuesday as a late-session buying spree brought the main index to a positive close for the second straight session this 2011.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index added 3.52 points or 0.08 percent to 4,218.73, likewise drawing strength from upbeat global markets.

Profit-taking pressures prevailed earlier in the day but at the end of the trading day, the modest gain by the holding firm counter shored up the index.

Value turnover improved to P4.88 billion. There were 67 advancers as against 79 decliners while 31 stocks were unchanged.

In Wall Street, stocks are nearing new multi-year highs. Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rallied by 93.24 points or 0.81 percent to 11,670.75 on optimism over the New Year.

"The start of 2011 has seen a relatively positive mood pervading markets although a clearer trend is likely to be established as the week progresses and more market participants return," said investment bank Credit Agricole CIB.

An increase in the US manufacturing index and a bigger than forecast rise in November construction spending aided sentiment, Credit Agricole said.

The stocks that gained on heavy volume were Manila Electric Co., Semirara Mining Corp., First Philippine Holdings Corp., DMCI Holdings Inc., Nickel Asia Corp., Ayala Corp., Aboitiz Power Corp. and Energy Development Corp.

On the other hand, there was profit-taking on Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Cyber Bay Corp., San Miguel Corp., Philex Mining Corp., Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., Universal Robina Corp., Metro Pacific Investments Corp., Ayala Land Inc., Petron Corp., Atlas Consolidated Mining & Development Corp., Alliance Global Group Inc. and Cebu Air Inc.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Morning Brief: 02 January 2011


Gov’t expects P7.6B more from ‘sin’ taxes
Bulk to come from tobacco products
By Ronnel Domingo
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—The government expects additional revenue of P7.6 billion from the last mandated increases in the excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco, under the Sin Tax Law of 2005, which took effect on Jan. 1.

Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran said in an interview that based on 2009 consumption figures, tobacco products would represent 53 percent of the additional tax take while alcohol will account for the rest.

Based on the government’s excise tax collection program for 2011, Beltran said alcohol-based beverages would account for P22.5 billion or lower by 0.4 percent than the P22.6 billion collected in 2010.

Excise tax collection on tobacco products is programmed at P23.6 billion this year, 8.5 percent lower than the P25.8 billion last year.

Beltran said it was observed that companies “frontload” their shipments at the end of the year before a scheduled increase in excise taxes in the coming year. This means that shipments are made in advance to avoid paying higher taxes.

Under Republic Act No. 9334 or the Sin Tax Law passed in 2005, the levy on cigarettes and alcohol vary in rates depending on price classification.

The tax rates rise every two years starting 2005 at varying paces until 2011 when the cumulative increases reach 20 percent.

The law states that the biennial increase for alcohol is 8 percent while that for tobacco is 6 percent.

“The Department of Finance’s position is that the sin tax should be harmonized or there should be a single rate,” Beltran said. “The current law is so confusing that even the implementers get confused.”

He said there should be a new law by 2013, preferably one that simplifies the sin tax scheme and resulting in higher taxes.

Data from the Bureau of Internal Revenue show that in the 10 months to October, collection of excise tax on alcohol reached P17.5 billion or 3.5 percent higher year-on-year.

Also, collection of excise tax on tobacco reached P25.1 billion or 15.7 percent higher.

SSS expects P16.5B in amnesty payments
By Ronnel Domingo
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—The Social Security System expects to collect a total of P16.5 billion in short-term loan payments this year as it kicks off today another amnesty program for delinquent employers.

Emilio de Quiros Jr., SSS president and chief executive, said in a statement that the projected amount includes P2.1 billion in overdue amortizations from such employers.

This means regular short-term loan payments are expected to reach P14 billion, equalling the amount recorded in 2010.

“Reducing the loan delinquency of members is a top priority of SSS,” De Quiros said.

“We offer the six-month amnesty program to employers since employed members make up an overwhelming majority of overdue loan accounts.”

The new amnesty program, which will end on June 30, will benefit employees with overdue loans taken out under current or previous employers or when they were self-employed or voluntary members.

A previous amnesty program covered SSS employees, self-employed and voluntary members for loans payments due between May 2008 and December 2009.

De Quiros said the SSS collected a total of P919.8 million in principal and interest payments from that amnesty program, which was in force last year.

He said the new program for employers covers salary, calamity, emergency, educational, stock investment and privatization fund loans.

He said unpaid loans incur continuing interest and monthly penalties of one percent, but employers can choose to pay in full or installments of up to 24 months, which carry a 3-percent annual interest.

“The SSS will waive penalties on delinquent loan amortizations due on or before April 1, 2010, which is in accordance with guidelines approved by MalacaƱang last June 3,” De Quiros said.

“Penalties on loan amortizations that fall due after April 1 of last year are not covered by the loan condonation program,” he said.

Employers applying for amnesty must be up-to-date in paying contributions to have their loan penalties condoned, De Quiros added.


Stocks: New year, same old risks

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As we kick off 2011, investors are hoping to put some of the stomach churning market swings behind them. But there are still challenges that could cause some bumps in the ongoing road to recovery.

On the bright side, we're a year-and-a-half out of the recession, and stocks are back to their pre-Lehman Brothers bust levels. All three major indexes finished 2010 with double-digit percentage gains.

For the year overall, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 11%, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished up 13%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) rose 17%.

And though the economy is only recovering at half-speed, investors are growing increasingly optimistic about the New Year. In fact, more than half of all investors are bullish on the stock market, according to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. That's well above the historical average.

And for the first time in more than eight months, investors are beginning to plow more money into the stock market than they are pulling out. Market participants pumped $335 million into U.S. equity funds in the week ended Dec. 21, according to the Investment Company Institute.

All of that points to a good year for stocks but it won't be a smooth ascent.

"The same concerns that affected the market in 2010 will continue to do so in 2011, so we're going to see the same volatility and lots of starts and stops," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis. Still, she thinks the bull market that started in March 2009 will continue.


Treasuries get a year-end boost

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. treasury prices rose during a shortened trading session Friday, ending a volatile year on a positive note.

The price on the benchmark 10-year note rose slightly, pushing the yield down to 3.30% from 3.37% late Thursday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. The yield on the 30-year bond fell to 4.33%, while the yield on the 2-year note edged down to to 0.60%. The 5-year note's yield slipped to 2.01%.
Trading volume remained light amid the year-end holiday period.

U.S. debt, which is considered a safe haven, was an attractive asset to investors during the earlier part of 2010, as concerns over Europe's sovereign debt issues were at the forefront.

But as those worries faded, so did the appeal for Treasuries. That has sent yields higher, especially as better-than-expected economic news bolstered demand for riskier asset. After hitting a low below 2.4% in early October, the benchmark yield finished the year at 3.3%.

As traders get back in gear for 2011 next week, analysts expect yields will continue rising as the economy recovers, despite the Federal Reserve's attempt to push rates lower.

In November, the Fed announced it will pump $600 billion into the economy by June through purchases of long-term Treasuries. As part of the program, which winds down during the middle of next year, the central bank is expect to scoop up more Treasuries next week.


Oil Surges to Highest Year-End Price Since 2007 on Dollar

Oil surged to its highest year-end price since 2007 as the dollar weakened and gasoline and heating oil futures climbed.

Crude capped its second consecutive year of gains as the dollar dropped against the euro, boosting commodities’ appeal as an alternative investment. Oil settled above $91 a barrel after testing technical support near $89. Gasoline and heating oil advanced before the January contracts expired today.

“A weaker dollar and stronger product prices are all bolstering crude,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant.

Oil for February delivery climbed $1.54, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $91.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell 13 cents this week and rose 8.6 percent in December.

Futures advanced 15 percent this year amid signs that the global economic recovery is gaining momentum and stoking demand for raw materials. Commodity prices beat increases in stocks, bonds and the dollar as China led a recovery from the first global economic recession since World War II.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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