THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Morning Brief: 01 JUNE 2011


Peso up as efforts to fix Euro debt lift sentiments on global economy
By: Michelle V. Remo

The peso inched up on Tuesday as efforts to resolve debt woes in the Euro zone lifted sentiment for emerging markets in general.

The local currency closed at 43.25 against the US dollar on the second trading day of the week, up by 6.5 centavos from Monday’s finish of 43.315:$1.

Intraday high stood at 43.18:$1, while intraday low settled at 43.33:$1. Volume of trade amounted to P800.43 million, up from $582.5 million previously.

Traders said investors had been worried about the serious debt situation of countries in the Euro zone, but added that recent reports about plans to rescue debt-ridden countries somehow eased concerns of investors on the overall global economy.

In turn, their appetite for perceivably riskier instruments, particularly those issued from emerging markets like the Philippines, has somewhat improved, traders explained.

The appreciation of the peso on Tuesday followed reports that leaders of the European Union have been trying to come up with a package of financial aid to help rescue Greece. Moreover, the EU recently issued bonds, proceeds of which were meant to financially support other ailing member-countries, particularly Ireland and Portugal.


San Miguel Brewery to invest $100M in 4 more bottling plants
By: Doris Dumlao

Local beer giant San Miguel Brewery is opening up four new bottling plants in Laguna, Isabela, Bicol and Cayagan de Oro worth about $100 million this year, thereby expanding its bottling capacity by 30 percent.

It also plans to set up brewery plants in Laos and Cambodia, SMB chairman Ramon S. Ang told reporters at the sidelines of the beer brewery’s annual stockholders’ meeting.

SMB is also in talks with Kirin to dilute their combined stake in order to comply with the 10 percent minimum public float required by the PSE. A public offering shall be conducted to expand public float by November this year, Ang said.

U.S. Stocks Advance on Speculation About Additional Bailout Aid for Greece
By Rita Nazareth

U.S. stocks advanced, trimming the biggest monthly drop since August for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid speculation about additional aid for Greece.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) rallied 3.1 percent after saying Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs will introduce a cloud-computing product and new software next week. Intel Corp. (INTC) gained 1.4 percent as the world’s largest chipmaker seeks to challenge tablet makers with a new type of thinner laptop called an “ultrabook.” General Dynamics Corp. (GD) climbed 4.2 percent after receiving a $744 million contract from the U.S. Navy.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent to 1,345.20 at 4 p.m. in New York, for its fourth consecutive day of gains. The index declined 1.4 percent in May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 128.21 points, or 1 percent, to 12,569.79 today. Equities advanced even as data on consumer confidence and business activity trailed economists’ estimates.

“There’s a roadmap to getting Greece through its crisis,” said Madelynn Matlock, who helps oversee $14.8 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. “That’s why investors are reacting positively. In the U.S., we got some softening in economic data. That doesn’t tell me we’re going to have a QE3. It tells me that monetary policy is going to be easy for a while. That should provide room for stocks to move higher.”

The benchmark gauge fell from an almost three-year high on April 29 on concern about Europe’s debt crisis. Still, the gauge rose 7 percent this year amid higher-than-forecast corporate profits and government stimulus measures. The Federal Reserve plans to complete its second round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, or QE2, in June, while holding interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”

Last 100 Years

Benchmark indexes had a four-week drop, the longest losing streak in more than 15 months. Over the last 100 years, the Dow has returned an average 0.4 percent gain in June, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. The gauge has fallen 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent in June, respectively, over the last 50 years and 20 years, the data showed.

Global stocks rallied as Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro-area finance ministers, said European Union leaders will decide on additional aid for Greece by the end of June and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of its debt.

Stocks gained even after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer fell to 56.6 this month from 67.6 in April. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Economists forecast the gauge would fall to 62, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Consumer Confidence Slumps

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in May to a six-month low as Americans’ outlook for business conditions and the labor market soured. Another report showed that home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped in March to the lowest level since 2003, showing housing remains mired in a slump almost two years into the economic recovery.

“Economic data has been patchy,” Mike Ryan, the New York- based chief investment strategist for Wealth Management Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc., wrote in a note today. “The apparently much more mixed picture represents mostly a transitory headwind. It remains our view that equity markets will outperform over the balance of the year given a still solid earnings outlook, undemanding valuations and continued accommodative policy conditions.”

The longest stretch of declines on a weekly basis for the S&P 500 in a year has left valuations at the lowest level ever compared with speculative-grade debt.

Junk Bonds

Earnings from the past 12 months for companies in the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities reached 6.64 percent of share prices this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compared with the 6.61 percent average yield on junk bonds, data from Barclays Plc show. It was the first time the spread, a way of comparing debt and equity values, has shown stocks with a higher yield, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1987.

Technology shares led the gains in the S&P 500 among 10 industries, rising 1.6 percent.

Apple rallied 3.1 percent to $347.83. CEO Jobs will make a public appearance June 6 to introduce a cloud-computing product and a new version of the operating system that powers its iPad and iPhone touch devices. Jobs, in the midst of his third medical leave since 2004 as he battles a rare form of cancer, will deliver a keynote address at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, the Cupertino, California-based company said in a statement today.

Challenging Other Tablets

Intel gained 1.4 percent to $22.51. The world’s largest chipmaker is seeking to help the personal-computer industry fend off a challenge from Apple’s iPad and other tablets. Intel’s new machines will be less than an inch thick, have days of battery life on standby, start up in just seconds and retail for less than $1,000, according to Intel Executive Vice President Sean Maloney. Intel aims to convert 40 percent of consumer laptops to the new category by the end of 2012.

General Dynamics advanced 4.2 percent to $74.22. The second-largest U.S. shipbuilder received a $744 million contract from the U.S. Navy to construct two mobile landing platform ships. The contract comes with an option for the construction of a third ship, which would increase its size to $1.3 billion.

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)’s Chief Executive Officer Laurence D. Fink said he’s more bullish on U.S. equities than bonds because companies are benefiting from the weak dollar and have surplus cash to invest for growth.

“We love equities, we love dividend stocks,” Fink said in a Bloomberg Television interview today in Hong Kong. “You own Treasuries because you’re worried about the world and the future, but if you believe the world is a good place to invest for the long cycle, you have to be in equities.”

Fink, one of the co-founders of BlackRock in 1988, built what is now the world’s biggest asset manager through acquisitions including the purchase in December 2009 of Barclays Global Investors. He said in a March 3 interview that he’s a “big buyer” of the U.S. dollar, doesn’t see a “bear market” in bonds and would buy Treasuries if yields rise above 4 percent.


Oil Rises for Third Day on Optimism Over Greek Aid; U.S. Supplies May Drop
By Ben Sharples - May 31, 2011

Oil gained for a third day in New York as signals that the European Union will approve aid for Greece without forcing a debt default stoked speculation fuel demand will increase.

Futures climbed as much as 0.5 percent after rising 2.1 percent yesterday. EU leaders will decide on additional help for Greece by the end of this month and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of its debt, said Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro-area finance ministers. Prices also gained after a Canadian pipeline was shut. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show U.S. crude supplies fell.

“There’s a little bit of relief in the Greek world and that’s suggesting a bit more demand,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, who predicted oil will average $100 this year.

Crude for July delivery rose as much as 48 cents to $103.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.90 at 10:39 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday climbed $2.11 to $102.70, the highest since May 10. Prices slipped 9.9 percent in May, the first decline in nine months, and are 42 percent higher the past year.

Brent crude for July delivery gained 14 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $116.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract yesterday increased $2.05, or 1.8 percent, to $116.73. Prices slid 7.3 percent in May and are 61 percent higher the past year.

Testing $106

The European benchmark contract traded at a premium of $13.95 a barrel to U.S. futures yesterday. The difference between front-month contracts in London and New York reached a record $19.54 on Feb. 21. It averaged 76 cents last year.

Oil may test $106 a barrel in New York for the first time in three weeks after the July contract broke through technical resistance at the 100-day moving average, according to analysis from New York-based Blue Ocean Brokerage LLC. The moving average was $102.08.

Inspectors from the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank are set to wrap up a review of Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout in the next few days. “We will try to solve the Greek problem by the end of June,” said Juncker yesterday in Paris after meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

No Debt Restructuring

Debt restructuring is “off the table” because of the domino effect on European markets, said Olli Rehn, the EU’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner, in a Bloomberg interview yesterday in New York.

The euro rose as high as $1.4437 in New York, the strongest against the U.S. currency since May 9. A weaker dollar makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment.

Calgary-based TransCanada Corp. shut the 591,000 barrel-a- day Keystone pipeline after “an issue with a fitting” caused a 40-barrel oil leak at a pump station, according to an e-mailed statement from Terry Cunha, a company spokesman. There was no fault on the pipeline itself, he said.

The system ends at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate oil, the grade traded in New York.

Oil tanks at Cushing were at 86 percent of working storage capacity as of the end of March, the U.S. Energy Department said. It’s the first time the department has published a utilization figure for Cushing, said Jonathan Cogan, an EIA spokesman.

Crude Stockpiles

An Energy Department report tomorrow may show U.S. crude stockpiles declined 1.8 million barrels last week from 370.9 million, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts shows. Gasoline supplies probably increased 650,000 barrels, the survey shows.

Prices fell for options betting crude will decline. The most-active contract was the July $95 put, which dropped 40 cents to 59 cents. The July $105 call option, a bet oil will rise, climbed 56 cents to $1.64.

Qatar’s oil minister said there’s “no noticeable urgency” for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise its quota when it meets on June 8 in Vienna. The market is in a “healthy situation,” Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said. Supply, demand and prices are “getting stable,” he said.

Oil reduced gains after data showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped in March to the lowest level since 2003. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 3.6 percent in March from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year decline since November 2009, the group said yesterday in New York.

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly slipped in May to a six-month low, the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, said yesterday.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

BDO UNIBANK INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Philippine Markets: 31 May 2011

31 May 2011

USD/PhP: 43.28 (As of 12:00pm) PSEi: 4,2244.64 - 50.60
USD/JPY: 81.15 PFINC: 945.17 - 4.93
EUR/USD: 1.4374 BDO: 58.50 +0.70
GBP/USD: 1.6545 BPI: 55.65 - 1.35
PDSTF3M: 2.6923 MBT: 69.00 - 0.35
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Philippines Seeks More Information on FX Forwards, Tetangco Says
By Clarissa Batino

The Philippine central bank seeks to have a clearer picture
of the non-deliverable forward transactions “while maintaining a liberal policy framework,”
Governor Amando Tetangco said in a mobile phone message.

“We want to better understand the NDF market in terms of size, direction
and timing of transactions,” Tetangco said today. the central bank had
issued a memo requiring banks to submit a daily report on their peso forwards transactions.

BDO UNIBANK, INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 31 MAY 2011



Slower 4.9% Q1 GDP growth not alarming, say experts
By: Christine O. AvendaƱo, Doris C. Dumlao, Ronnel W. Domingo
Philippine Daily Inquirer

LOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT NOT ALARMING. Workers are seen at a construction site in Manila on Monday. The Philippines said economic growth slowed to 4.9 percent in the three months to March as it was hit by a drop in global trade and less spending on infrastructure. AFP PHOTO/NOEL CELIS

The slower growth of the country’s economy should not alarm investors as the Philippines just happens to be returning to its normal growth pattern after an extraordinary 2010, an economist at British banking giant HSBC said.

HSBC economist Sherman Chan, in a commentary released shortly after the government announced the country’s first-quarter growth figure, also said that with private consumption remaining buoyant, inflation would not likely cool anytime soon.

According to the economist, solid household demand suggested that underlying inflationary pressures were unlikely to recede anytime soon.

“With inflation already in the upper half of the central bank’s target band and is set to breach the upper bound within the next two months, the [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] will maintain its hawkish stance,” Chan said.

She projected the BSP would continue its interest rate increases and end the year with the overnight borrowing rate at 5 percent.

The 4.9-percent gross domestic product growth posted in the first quarter fell short of the market’s expectation of at least 5.1 percent.

Still, it was above HSBC’s forecast of 4.8 percent for the period.

HSBC is expecting further moderation in growth this second quarter, noting that household consumption would likely lose a bit of steam.

In MalacaƱang, President Aquino remained optimistic that the economy’s growth would pick up despite the disappointing first-quarter growth figure.

Speaking to reporters in the Palace, the President noted that the country did not fare badly despite the political unrest now affecting oil-producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the string of disasters in Japan, the Philippines’ biggest trading partner and source of foreign assistance.

Aquino said he remained optimistic over the country’s full-year prospects.

In the second quarter, the government will again pump-prime the economy now that oil prices in the market have started to stabilize, Aquino said.

“We believe our (growth) numbers will improve,” President Aquino said a few hours after economic officials announced the economy’s growth figure.

Data from the National Statistics Office showed that the country posted a trade deficit of $3.368 billion in the first quarter, more than double the $1.441 billion recorded in the same period of 2010.

“The wider trade balance is largely a function of a sharp jump in intermediate goods—imports—which implies a rise in inventories rather than booming consumption,” said UBS economist Edward Teather.

European Stocks Are Little Changed; BASF, Vestas Advance, Greek Banks Drop
By Alexis Xydias

European stocks were little changed after four straight weeks of losses for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as chemical makers and renewable-energy companies gained while banks fell amid sovereign-debt concern.

BASF SE (BAS), the world’s biggest maker of chemicals, rose 1 percent. Renewable Energy Corp. ASA and Vestas Wind Systems A/S climbed more than 2.5 percent as Germany set 2022 as the final date to close its nuclear reactors. Alpha Bank SA tumbled 9.1 percent in Athens as the International Monetary Fund reviewedGreece’s efforts toward meeting fiscal targets.

The Stoxx 600 slipped less than 0.1 percent to 278.82 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. Trading volume was lower than normal as U.K. and U.S. exchanges were closed for holidays.

Speculation that Greece will restructure its debt and concern the outlook for other economies in the region is worsening has weighed on stocks since February. The Stoxx 600 has dropped 4.2 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17, bringing its valuation to 11.1 times the estimated earnings of its companies, near the cheapest since April 2009.

“The debt issues come up again and again, but a lot of people are getting used to these ongoing concerns,” said Peter Braendle, who helps manage $68 billion at Swisscanto Asset Management in Zurich. “We are fairly optimistic on European stocks because of valuations and we are increasing exposure in Europe compared to other markets.”

‘Death Sentence’

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’ll press ahead with new austerity measures after failing to win backing from the main opposition parties. An international panel of inspectors has concluded that the debt-laden country has missed all the fiscal targets agreed in its rescue plan, Der Spiegel reported May 29, without saying how it obtained the information.

IMF talks with Greek officials to assess the nation’s fiscal achievements continue, Conny Lotze, a Washington-based IMF spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. A debt restructuring would be a “death sentence” and have a dramatic destabilizing impact on the euro region, European Central Bank executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi told the Financial Times.

“The Greek song is the same one and it’s taking longer than hoped for,” said Jacques Porta, a Paris-based fund manager at Ofi Patrimoine, who helps oversee about $425 million in stocks. “We’re not pessimists, and declines in stocks present buying opportunities, but given how things are, we prefer to hold and wait.”

Benchmark Indexes

National benchmark indexes declined in 10 of the 17 western European markets open today. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2 percent and the Swiss Market Index lost 0.3 percent, while Greece’s ASE sank 2 percent to the lowest since 1997.

Trading in Euro Stoxx 50 futures today was less than a fifth of the average daily volume over the past 20 sessions, according to Bloomberg data.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) equity strategists cut their earnings and price forecasts for the Stoxx 600, citing lower economic growth worldwide and higher commodity prices.

Earnings for companies in the European benchmark may increase by 14 percent this year, down from a previous estimate of 20 percent, the strategists wrote in a report dated May 27. The Stoxx 600 may trade at 280 in three months and 300 in six months, down from forecasts of 290 and 310, respectively.

BASF rose 1 percent to 61.92 euros, leading a measure of chemical makers to the biggest gain among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

REC, Vestas

Alternative-energy companies rose as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition resolved their differences over the timing of an exit from nuclear power following Japan’s Fukushima disaster, the worst nuclear crisis since 1986.

Renewable Energy Corp., a maker of solar-energy wafers, cells and modules, gained 3.7 percent to 12.99 kroner. Vestas, the largest wind-turbine manufacturer, climbed 2.7 percent to 151 kroner. Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA, Europe’s second-biggest wind-turbine maker, surged 5.2 percent to 6.52 euros and Enel Green Power SpA (EGPW), a unit of Italy’s largest energy company, rallied 4.8 percent to 1.92 euros.

RWE AG (RWE) and EON AG, Germany’s largest power companies, retreated 1.7 percent to 40.31 euros and 2.3 percent to 19.56 euros, respectively. A tax on spent fuel rods will remain even as the shutdown proceeds, German Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen said.

Alpha Bank, Greece’s third-biggest lender, slumped 9.1 percent to 2.91 euros, the lowest since June 1995. EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB), the country’s second-largest bank, declined 6.2 percent to 2.87 euros.

‘Increasingly Difficult’

“So far the Greek crisis has remained within certain limits, but as the situation deteriorates, the risk increases of starting to see the effect broadening,” said Elwin de Groot, senior market economist at Rabobank in Utrecht,Netherlands. “The situation looks increasingly difficult.”

Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP), Portugal’s biggest non-state bank by assets, retreated 6.6 percent to 46.7 euro cents, the lowest since at least 1993. Rights that allow the purchase of shares for 36 cents each tumbled 33 percent to 1.1 cent, meaning investors must pay almost 10 cents to acquire one new share at that price.

Athens-based Intralot SA, the world’s second-biggest gambling services provider, tumbled 22 percent to 1.64 euros, the largest drop in 12 years. Chairman Sokratis Kokkalis may face prosecution after an investigation into a technical services contract with Opap SA, Eleftherotypia newspaper said, without saying where it got the information.


Oil Heads for First Monthly Drop Since August on European Debt Concerns
By Ben Sharples

Oil headed for its first monthly decline since August in New York as Europe’s continuing debt crisis stoked speculation that fuel demand may falter as the economy slows.

Futures were little changed today and are down 11.9 percent this month. Greece’s main opposition party rejected the government’s austerity plans and called for bailout terms to be renegotiated as the European Union debates giving more aid. U.S. floor trading was closed yesterday for the Memorial Day public holiday. Electronic trades will be booked with today’s transactions for settlement purposes.

“Concerns over European sovereign debt continued to weigh on markets, dragging prices lower,” economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., led by Warren Hogan, wrote in a note today.

Crude for July delivery was at $100.37 a barrel, down 1 cent, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:31 a.m. Sydney time. The contract slid 21 cents to $100.38 yesterday. Prices are 36 percent higher the past year.

Brent crude oil for July settlement lost 35 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $114.68 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London yesterday, the lowest settlement since May 24. The contract has dropped 8.3 percent this month.

U.S. Economy

Reports this week may show U.S. factory output and job growth slowed while home price declines accelerated. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the world’s biggest economy, will probably cool following its strongest showing in seven years, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The Labor Department may say on June 3 payrolls rose 185,000 after a 244,000 gain in April, a separate survey shows. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities is forecast to show prices fell 3.4 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with a 3.3 percent drop in February.

The European benchmark contract traded at a premium of $14.30 a barrel to U.S. futures yesterday. The difference between front month contracts in London and New York surged to a record $19.54 on Feb. 21. It averaged 76 cents last year.

Brent has advanced 21 percent this year as unrest in the Middle East and North Africa toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt and spread to Libya, Iran and Syria. The death toll from an attack on protestors by Yemeni security forces rose to 57, with more than 1,000 in the city of Taiz injured, al-Jazeera television reported.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

BDO UNIBANK INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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