Currency framework needed from G20 -- RP A CURRENCY framework that will allow for coordinated action on capital flows should be agreed upon during this week’s G20 summit in Seoul, South Korea, Philippine officials yesterday said. "This framework should be in effect by early next year. There should be a clearer path early next year," Mr. Purisima added. In Malacañang, President Benigno S. C. Aquino III said the matter was also raised during a courtesy call yesterday by International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara. "We discussed the possibility that the G20 will produce [the framework]. It seems it’s not ready yet," Mr. Aquino told reporters. "Hopefully it will further be expounded at the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) and APEC will hopefully, best case scenario, propose that framework to be adopted." Mr. Shinohara did not hold a briefing but IMF country representative Dennis P. Botman, asked to comment on Mr. Aquino’s statements, told BusinessWorld : "Projected growth in emerging markets is significantly higher than in advanced economies. This has led to large, and at times volatile, capital flows to Asia and other regions complicating macroeconomic management." "Strong global cooperation remains key in this regard to make progress on two critical rebalancing acts: internal (from the public to the private sector) and external (from surplus to deficit countries)," he said in an e-mail. Leaders of the G20 -- which groups the world’s top 20 economies -- are meeting in Seoul from Nov. 11-12. Leaders of 21-member APEC -- which accounts for over half of world GDP -- will be meeting from Nov. 13-14 in Yokohama, Japan with Mr. Aquino attending. "The idea basically is, let us learn from the lessons of the Great Depression [of the 1930s]," the president said. Strong capital flows to emerging economies -- due to continued weakness in the developed world -- have led to currency gains and weakened exports, raising concerns among monetary authorities. Last week’s US Federal Reserve move to buy $600 billion of government bonds is expected to boost those flows. The peso, which closed at P43.245 yesterday, down 54 centavos from Friday, has gained some 8% this year. It hit a 29-month high of P42.53 last Thursday. Mr. Aquino said "rapid fluctuation" was "not yet happening in our country and hopefully it will not happen." "I think we’re roughly in the band that is tolerable within the system. The issue has more to deal with volatility, the rapid swings in either direction. That is what you would want to mitigate..." Ricky A. Carandang, Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning secretary, said the government was continuing to monitor the movement of the peso. Mr. Purisima, who attended last week’s APEC finance ministers meeting in Japan, said the currency framework should be drafted by large economies as "with their every move now we are hurting." APEC finance ministers on Saturday committed to refrain from competitive devaluations and move to more market-determined exchange rates. LRT, MRT fares to increase in December COMMUTERS using Metro Manila’s three rapid transit railways will have to deal with higher fares next month, a Transportation department official yesterday said. Increases at the Light Rail Transit lines one (LRT-1) and two (LRT-2) and the Metro Rail Transit 3 (MRT-3) are still being finalized but the minimum fare will not rise beyond P30, Transportation Undersecretary Dante M. Velasco said. "We will have the increase in December. We are not sure whether it will be implemented days before or after Christmas," he toldBusinessWorld. Transportation department and Light Rail Transit Authority officials are scheduled to meet next week and a fare matrix could be finalized before the end of the month. Public consultations would then be held although the adjustments could be implemented earlier. "We may have the fare hike while conducting public consultations. If we see any valid concern not to continue ... we will do necessary actions," he said. "We really need to raise the fares. The money that the government will save can be used for other, more important projects that will benefit more people" Mr. Velasco said a fare increase would allow the government -- which subsidizes the light railways -- to save much as P2 billion every year. "This year, the government expects to spend P6 billion to subsidize MRT operations. Next year, this figure is expected to increase to P7 billion," he said. End-to-end travel on the MRT-3 that traverses EDSA -- from the North Ave. station in Quezon City to the Taft Ave. station in Pasay City -- currently costs P15. Mr. Velasco said the fare would be P48 if the subsidy was removed. The maximum fare at the LRT-1, which now runs from the Baclaran station in Pasay City to Roosevelt station in Bago Bantay, Quezon City, is P20. The Roosevelt end was opened recently as part of a plan to link the LRT and MRT lines. At the LRT-2 line, which runs from the Santolan station in Barangka, Marikina, to Recto station in Santa Cruz, Manila, the maximum fare currently stands at P15. |
U.S. Stocks Retreat; Boeing, Home Depot Lead Declines in Dow U.S. stocks fell, dragging benchmark gauges down from two-year highs, as a five-week rally left the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index at the highest valuation since May and concerns over Irish debt curbed demand for riskier assets. Travelers Cos., Boeing Co. and Home Depot Inc. led a drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, each sliding at least 1.3 percent. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. lost 4.3 percent after an analyst suggested BHP Billiton Ltd. as a more likely suitor for Woodside Petroleum Ltd. American International Group Inc. slipped 2.1 percent after being removed from UBS AG’s “Short- Term Buy” list. The S&P 500 decreased 0.2 percent to 1,223.25 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier declining as much as 0.7 percent. The Dow slipped 37.24 points, or 0.3 percent, to 11,406.84. U.S. stocks rallied last week as the Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion bond-purchase plan, employment increased more than forecast and midterm elections produced a divided Congress. “It looks like expectations have gotten ahead of themselves,” said Jeffrey Coons, president of Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. in Fairport, New York, which manages $25 billion. “The Fed announcement, the election results -- it doesn’t really change the fundamentals of the environment, the weak economic growth and a very aggressive Fed policy.”
Three-year notes declined after the government sold $32 billion of the securities, the first of three offerings this week of $72 billion in notes and bonds. Treasury 30-year bonds yields fell from the highest levels since June, as traders assessed the Federal Reserve’s plan to purchase more debt in a bid to spark normal levels of inflation and reduce unemployment that remains near a 26-year high. “The bigger issue this week is going to be 10s and 30s and the market is starting to set up for this, which is why we are seeing a little bit of weakness,” said Larry Milstein, managing director in New York at RW Pressprich & Co., a fixed-income broker and dealer for institutional investors. “Investors should buy on dips in Treasuries, given the Fed’s buying stance.” Yields on the Treasury’s benchmark 10-year notes rose two basis points to 2.55 percent at 5:07 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.675 percent securities due August 2020 fell 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000, to 100 19/32. Thirty-year bond yields was little changed at 4.12 percent, after touching 4.15 percent, near the highest since June 22. |
Crude Oil Increases to 25-Month High as Commodities Gain, Gold at a Record Oil edged up to its highest level since October 2008, carried by advances in other commodities including precious metals. Futures rose for a sixth day as gold prices rallied to a record and silver reached a 30-year high. Oil and precious metals strengthened as traders lost confidence in holding currencies as an investment. Oil “is getting some inspiration from other markets,” said Phil Flynn, a Chicago-based analyst and trader with investment adviser PFGBest. “Oil is following gold and the other commodities.” Crude for December delivery rose 21 cents to $87.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price since Oct. 8, 2008. Oil has gained 12 percent in the past year. Prices jumped 6.7 percent last week, the most since February. Brent crude for December settlement rose 35 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $88.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have signaled they may seek a higher price range for oil as the depreciation of the U.S. currency erodes the purchasing power of their dollar-denominated exports. The world will “have to live with current oil prices,” Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said today in Doha. Qatar is OPEC’s second-smallest oil producer after Ecuador. Ali Al-Naimi, the oil minister from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, indicated last week that a range of $70 to $90 a barrel is satisfactory. The kingdom had previously said it preferred a target of $75 a barrel. |
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com
Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145
Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher
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