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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Morning Brief: 18 January 2011


Remittances seen breaching $18B in ’10
11-month tally hits $17B; Nov. inflow at $1.6B
By Michelle Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—Overseas Filipinos sent home $1.6 billion in November, bringing total remittances for the first 11 months of 2010 to $17 billion, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported Monday.

The central bank said demand for Filipino workers by employers in various parts of the globe remained strong.

Remittances in November were up nearly 11 percent from the $1.5 billion recorded in the same month of the previous year. The January-November level was also up 8.2 percent from $15.8 billion in the first 11 months of 2009.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said the growing demand for Filipino workers must be credited to their diversified skills, adding that government efforts to seek employment deals with host countries also helped increase the deployment rate.

The central bank said in its report that remittances from January to November last year came mostly from the United States, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Italy, Germany and Norway.

The BSP said the move of Philippine-based banks to open remittance centers and engage in tie-ups with money transfer agents in various countries has made it easier for overseas Filipinos to send money to the Philippines.

According to projections made earlier by the BSP, remittances for 2010 would hit $18.79 billion, marking an 8-percent increase from the $17.4 billion registered in 2009.

“Given the steady levels of remittances through November, the projected full year 2010 remittance level will likely be achieved,” Tetangco said.

Citing documents from the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, approved job orders for Filipino workers totaled 624,045 last year.

The newly hired Filipinos were expected to continue fueling remittances to the Philippines this year, the central bank said. For 2011, the BSP said it expected another 8-percent growth in remittances.

Remittances are a closely watched economic indicator given that these largely fuel consumption of Filipino households. Consumption is a bigger driver of the Philippine economy than investments.

Economic managers have admitted that money sent by overseas Filipinos was a huge source of stimulus for the domestic economy. There are an estimated 10 million Filipinos working abroad.

The Philippines is the fourth-biggest remittance-receiving country after China, India and Mexico.

Although the government takes growth in remittances as positive news, economic managers agree that the big number of Filipinos working or looking for jobs abroad is an indication that local employment opportunities are not readily available at home.


PAGASA expects above-average rainfall for most of first semester

THE WEATHER bureau expects the country to experience above normal rainfall for most of the first half, a development seen easing power supply concerns but raising crop damage fears.

"Southern Luzon down to Mindanao will be experiencing on average greater than 120% ... [rainfall] due to the La Niña [weather pattern]," said Daisy S. Ortega, senior weather specialist at the Philippine Atmospheric Geothermal and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Continuous rains have affected eight regions in the country and Ms. Ortega said Albay province, for example, had seen precipitation levels hit 235.5 millimeters, 156.3% above normal.

The above average rains could extend to May this year, she said.

A dry spell last year caused by the El Niño phenomenon led to brownouts in parts of the country including Metro Manila. Mindanao was particularly affected and yesterday Dennis S. Gana, National Power Corp., spokesman, said the rains would help in "maximizing operations" of hydroelectric plants in the South.

"In Mindanao, these rains will maximize the use of Agus [hydroelectric] complex, stabilizing the water levels at Lake Lanao," he said.

The dry spell also led to negative agricultural sector growth for most of 2010. While officials have forecast a recovery this year, excessive rains and the resulting floods could extend the sector’s woes.

Antonio S. Nangel, head of the National Irrigation Administration, said the government was working to mitigate the impact on agricultural output.

"We are developing and improving the drainage system. If we don’t improve this, there will be flooding and crops will be submerged," he said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council yesterday reported that total damage from the continuous rains had risen to P1.626 billion, of which P417.715 million comprised the toll on farms.


U.S. Stock Futures Drop as Jobs's Medical Leave Spurs Speculation on Apple

U.S. stock futures pointed toward a drop for benchmark indexes as Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs’s leave of absence spurred concern over the prospects for the world’s second-largest company. Apple, which closed at a record in New York last week, slid 6.2 percent in Germany.

Futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index, of which Apple comprises 21 percent, sank 1.3 percent in an electronic holiday trading session that ended at 11:30 a.m. New York time. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in March lost 0.3 percent and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 0.1 percent. Apple is the second-biggest company in the S&P 500 by market value and is not in the 30-stock Dow. U.S. exchanges were closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Jobs, who is a cancer survivor, is taking a leave of absence to focus on his health, putting the company in the hands of Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook for the third time in seven years. Cook will be responsible for the day-to-day operations, with Jobs continuing as CEO, Apple said. Jobs took an almost six-month break to have a liver transplant in 2009.

“It’s a corporate setback and a negative for the stock,” said Michael Yoshikami, who owns Apple shares and oversees $1 billion at YCMNet Advisors in Walnut Creek, California. “Investors may be less negative this time because we’ve been down the road before when Tim Cook did a great job navigating the company in Steve Jobs’s absence, and Apple probably has its product replacement cycle set for the next two years. Still, the stock could sell off 10 to 15 percent and bring technology stocks down on sentiment.”


Crude Oil Declines as Trans Alaska Pipeline Restarts

Oil dropped, halting last week’s rally, as the operators of a pipeline from Alaska restored flows to the U.S., the largest crude consumer.

Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent as Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. said it had completed repairs on the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The line carries 11 percent of U.S. crude production. Equity markets dropped in the U.S. and Europe.

“The resumption of the Alaska North Slope Pipeline has helped check oil prices,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. “Crude has been in a continuous uptrend since November. Now we are seeing milder weather and anticipating the end of winter. I’d expect prices to stall before reaching $100, and perhaps retrace a bit.”

The February contract fell as much as 71 cents to $90.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $91.02 at 3:14 p.m. London time. There is no floor trading on Nymex today because of a U.S. holiday. Brent crude for March settlement dropped 79 cents to $97.59 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Alyeska Pipeline restarted the Trans Alaska pipeline and expects throughput to rise to 500,000 barrels a day within 24 hours, Michelle Egan, a company spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

The system resumed operation at 10:18 a.m. Alaska time, the company said in a statement. Producers on the state’s North Slope, who had been asked to scale back output to 12 percent of normal earlier today, are now free to resume normal operations.

The closure of the pipeline forced BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips to cut production from the North Slope area, pushing up crude prices.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

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