THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Friday, October 15, 2010

Philippines Markets: 15 October 2010

15 October 2010

USD/PhP: 43.175 + 0.01 PSEi: 4216.35 - 16.93
USD/JPY: 81.23 PFINC: 939.48 - 9.78
EUR/USD: 1.4078 BDO: 60.00 - 0.05
GBP/USD: 1.6055 BPI: 56.00 - 0.20
PDSTF3M: 3.9288 MBT: 68.95 - 2.90
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters

Philippine Interest Rate Outlook

Secondary market rates continued to trek downwards week-on-week as benign inflation environment supports investors’ expectations that monetary authorities will continue to keep its benchmark rates unchanged for the rest of the year the end.

Despite yields at historic lows, investors continue to snap government securities due to high market liquidity. On the budget side, the government remains on track to achieve their target deficit for the year.

Continue to expect market rates to remain on the low side until the end of the year.

Philippine Equities Outlook

Local shares lost 0.49 percent week-on-week to 4,216.35 due to profit-taking activities. However, optimism on the local market continues to be high as market participants expect better 3Q corporate results. Investors perceive any market pullback as an opportunity to buy equities as valuations remain relatively cheap against our Asian counter parts.

Chartwise, the week’s close at 4,216.35 suggests a minor consolidation is at play between the 4,200-4,240 levels. A break above the 4,250 levels will signal the test of the 4,300-4,350 levels. Immediate support and resistance is at at 4,150 and 4,250 levels respectively.


Philippine Peso Outlook

The local currency rose 0.60 percent week-on-week to 43.175 as the US dollar continued its decline against major currencies particularly the Euro. Portfolio flows continue to support peso appreciation as it tries to test new year lows.

Today's close at 43.175 points to a test of the 43.00 level. The recent pullback above the 43.50 is a mere technical rebound. Should 43.00 support levels hold, a pullback towards 43.50 - 43.70 is expected. Breach of 43.00 suggests test of 42.50 level.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 15 October 2010



BIR exceeds goal by P1.6B in September

The Bureau of Internal Revenue collected P60.96 billion in September, exceeding its target by P1.6 billion.

At the same time, the Bureau of Customs missed its P23.6-billion collection target for the month by some P2 billion, mainly due to the appreciation of the peso.

For the nine months to September, BIR collections reached P607.33 billion, falling short of its goal by 4.8 percent.

“Last month the BIR’s collections grew by 17 percent, the highest in about 28 months,” Internal Revenue Commissioner Kim S. Henares said. “We exceeded our target, the first time since January. This just shows that the Bureau’s performance continues to improve.”

According to Customs Commissioner Angelito A. Alvarez, for every peso gained against the dollar, the BoC would lose about P4.8 billion.

The government is currently operating on a budget based on an exchange rate of P45:$1. This has become a problem because the peso is now trading below 44 against the greenback, Alvarez said Thursday.

This meant that the BoC failed to deliver on its monthly targets for the third time since the Aquino administration took over the reins of government.

Still, the agency may expect better performance in October and November, when high import volumes are traditionally observed, Alvarez said.

“We are seeing rising volumes this October,” he said. “The first week of the month alone would have improved by about 10 percent (over the year).”

But he said collection could resume its decline in December, a usually low-volume period in an average year.

Alvarez maintained that the BoC had never missed its collection targets since he assumed office in July.

For September alone, Alvarez said, cash revenue reached P20.1 billion.

But while the agency may likely miss its full year target of P280 billion, it still has a good chance to collect P241 billion in cash as planned, Alvarez said.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that in the eight months to August, the customs bureau collected P170.7 billion, which was 16 percent higher than the P147.1 billion reported in the same period of 2009.

Business highly optimistic for 4th quarter

From the looks of it, this Christmas may bring on more than good cheer for the local business community.

According to a survey conducted by consultancy firm Dun & Bradstreet, local firms are at their most optimistic for the fourth quarter, with most respondents expecting a 63-percent jump in net income for the last three months of 2010 compared with the same period last year.

Expectations for this rise in earnings for the fourth quarter mark the sharpest spike in optimism for the entire 2010, representing a 13-percentage point increase over expectations of a 50-percent earnings increase for the third quarter.

In a briefing Thursday, economist Victor Abola—who interpreted the data for Dun & Bradstreet’s local unit—noted that the optimism was due mainly to the strong performance of financial markets in the country, as well as the trust rating of President Aquino, which recently stood at a record high 88 percent.

“The heightened view on profits for the [fourth] quarter is an additional reason to be optimistic, since this will encourage firms to expand further their output, probably even their capacities, in 2011,” he said.

Firms are also expecting sales volumes in the fourth quarter to rise by 70 percent year on year, the survey revealed.

Dun & Bradstreet said this marked the third consecutive quarter that companies’ outlook on sales volumes surged, attributing it again to “vibrant” financial markets.

The Business Optimism Index survey was conducted in mid-September. Its results were culled from a respondent base of 260 firms, out of the estimated 1,200 companies that were polled, officials said.


P24-B smuggling case filed vs Pilipinas Shell

THE GOVERNMENT yesterday filed a P24-billion smuggling case against Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp., charging the firm with misdeclaring and misclassifying imports from 2005 to 2009.

The complaint, filed by the Bureau of Customs before the Justice department, follows a still-unresolved P7.35-billion case involving unpaid excise taxes for importations from 2004 to 2009.

"This criminal complaint against Pilipinas Shell should prove to everyone that President [Benigno] Aquino’s campaign against smuggling, corruption and other economic crimes respect no sacred cows," Customs Commissioner Angelito A. Alvarez told reporters.

Charged were Nigel T. Avila, Pilipinas Shell country tax manager; employees Brian Khriz Acosta, Carolyn A. Francisco, Ma. Cristina Rago; and Customs brokers Janice de los Reyes, Diosdado G. Bagon, Jorge T. Pascual, Jr., and Mary Grace M. Maleon.

The Customs bureau alleged that 52 unleaded gasoline importations made by Pilipinas Shell from 2007 to 2009 were "intentionally" misclassified as tetrapropylene, a raw material used in making gasoline that is not subject to tax. Taxes supposed to be collected totaled P2.48 billion. The firm supposedly misdeclared another set of unleaded gasoline imports from August 2005 to December 2008 as catalytic cracked gasoline (CCG) or light catalytic cracked gasoline (LCCG), which are not subject to excise tax. Uncollected taxes summed up to P385.8 million.

The firm should have paid a total of P2.7 billion in taxes but the Customs bureau added another P21.78 billion in surcharges.

"We have never, ever engaged in smuggling," Edgardo Chua, Pilipinas Shell Petroleum chairman, said.

"We are one of the biggest tax payers in the country," he said in a television interview. "This charge is totally, totally, shall we say, ridiculous."

The first case involved CCG/LCCG importations made by Pilipinas Shell from 2004 to 2009. The Customs bureau claims the importations are subject to tax and late last year threatened to seize Shell imports, averted after the oil firm put up a P7-billion bond early this year pending a final court ruling.


U.S. Stocks Retreat as Banks Tumble on Foreclosure Concerns

U.S. stocks declined, dragging benchmark indexes down from five-month highs, as financial companies slumped amid concern over growing legal scrutiny of home foreclosure practices.

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. slid more than 4 percent to lead financial stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a 1.8 percent drop, the biggest among 10 industry groups. Apollo Group Inc. sparked a plunge in education stocks after withdrawing its forecast for fiscal 2011. Yahoo! Inc. gained 4.5 percent and EMC Corp. rose 4.5 percent on reports they may be takeover targets.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,173.81 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring its rebound from this year’s low on July 2 to 15 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.51 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,094.57.


Treasuries Tumble After U.S. Auction of $13 Billion of 30-Year Securities

Treasuries fell, pushing 30-year bond yields to a four-week high, as a U.S. sale of $13 billion of the securities drew lower-than-average demand amid bets the Federal Reserve may buy shorter-term notes to spur the economy.

The bonds drew a yield of 3.852 percent, higher than the average forecast of 3.831 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 6 of the Fed’s 18 primary dealers. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount offered, was 2.49, the lowest since February. Inflation expectations rose to five-month highs before a speech tomorrow by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

“It’s a concern about when quantitative easing comes, they’re going to buy 10-years on in, and they’re not going to buy 30-years,” saidJeff Given, part of a group that manages $18 billion of bonds at MFC Global Investment LLC in Boston. “So there’s a lack of sponsorship out there because of that.”

The yield on the 30-year bond increased nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 3.91 percent at 4:43 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It reached 3.92 percent, the highest level since Sept. 17. The 3.875 percent security due in August 2040 dropped 1 19/32, or $15.94 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 10/32.

The 10-year note yield rose eight basis points to 2.5 percent and touched 2.51 percent, the highest since Oct. 4.

The auction, the final of three offerings of notes and bonds this week totaling $66 billion, was the second reopening of the $16 billion 30-year sale on Aug. 12. The securities drew yields of 3.954 percent in August and 3.82 percent in September.


Oil Rises After Dollar Drops on Speculation Fed Will Ease Monetary Policy

Crude oil fell after a government report showed U.S. petroleum demand dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 months as the economy struggled to recover.

Crude declined for a third day this week after the Energy Department reported fuel consumption decreased 0.7 percent to 18.3 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 8, the lowest level since the seven days ended Nov. 27. A Labor Department report today showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 462,000 in the week to Oct. 9.

“The demand numbers were very weak,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We don’t really have a bull market unless we have stronger consumer demand.”

Oil for November delivery fell 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $82.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier today futures rose to a one-week high of $84.12. Prices have climbed 4.2 percent this year.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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