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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Philippines Markets: 27 October 2010

27 October 2010

USD/PhP: 43.26 + 0.15 PSEi: 4285.07 + 5.54
USD/JPY: 81.95 PFINC: 988.54 + 20.06
EUR/USD: 1.3801 BDO: 60.95 + 0.95
GBP/USD: 1.5770 BPI: 57.45 + 0.85
PDSTF3M: 3.8923 MBT: 79.25 + 3.50
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


RP stocks rebound
By Doris Dumlao

MANILA, Philippines – (UPDATE) Local stocks bounced mildly on Wednesday after succumbing to bouts of profit-taking since last week, likewise riding on firm trading across the region.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index closed 5.54 points or 0.13 percent higher at 4,285.07.

The day's gains were led by the financial counter, which rose by two percent on expectations of further monetary easing through bond-buying by the US Federal Reserve. The industrial counter likewise firmed up during the session.

The holding firms, property, services and mining/oil counters, on the other hand, continued to trade in the red.

Despite the overall index gain, decliners outnumbered advancers 73-68 while 39 stocks were unchanged. Value turnover amounted to P5.5 billion.

Source: www.inquirer.net

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 27 October 2010



August imports surge 22% to $4.41B

The country’s import bill grew 22 percent year on year to $4.41 billion in August, increasing for the 10th straight month, the National Statistics Office said Tuesday.

Total external trade—the combined value of outbound and inbound goods—in the eight months to August reached $68.3 billion, an increase of 31.3 percent from last year.

The trade balance remained in favor of the rest of the world, with the Philippines posting a deficit of $2.34 billion, although this was better than the $4.01-billion gap recorded in the same period of 2009.

Compared with July imports valued at $4.68 billion, shipments in August represented a decrease of 5.7 percent.

A strong inflow of goods from abroad, which indicated a similar movement in exports, is considered a good sign for a country like the Philippines, which relies heavily on foreign supplies of electronics inputs for its biggest source of export revenues.

NSO documents showed that electronic products accounted for 37.3 percent of total imports in August, with the value rising 27.2 percent year on year to $1.64 billion.

Semiconductor devices and parts made up 30.4 percent of all electronics shipments, racking up $1.34 billion in bills.

The operation of modern electronic devices such as computers, cell phones, transistors, solar panels, diodes and integrated circuits depend on semiconductor materials. Silicon is widely used in the production of commercial semiconductors.

Electronics imports in August increased by 0.7 percent from $1.63 billion in July.

August shipments of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials—the second-biggest subgroup in terms of value—also rose 0.7 percent to $634.75 million.

Transport equipment, the country’s third-largest import for the month, increased by 0.4 percent to $216.26 million.

Fourth were industrial machinery and equipment, payments for which jumped 43.7 percent to $189.33 million. In fifth place were cereals, which rose 67.9 percent to $152.48 million.


Cebu Pacific stock offering raises P23.3B

Investors snapped up shares of Gokongwei-led Cebu Air Inc. on its stock trading debut Tuesday as the Cebu Pacific airline operator made global history for a share offering worth at least $539 million, the biggest stock deal by a budget carrier.

Shares of Cebu Air—the biggest in the Philippines in terms of passengers carried and the third-largest budget carrier in Asia—rose 6.4 percent to P133 each from the IPO price of P125. It was the day’s most actively traded stock at the Philippine Stock Exchange where it ended its first day of trading with a market capitalization of P76.6 billion.

The company, which started trading under the ticker “CEB,” raised P23.3 billion from the sale of primary and secondary shares prior to the exercise of the option given to its underwriters to sell up to P3.49 billion worth of additional shares. This was so far the biggest stock offering size seen at the PSE in five years.

Citing wire data, Cebu Air said its IPO had topped IPOs previously held by other budget carriers across the globe such as Ryan Air ($159.6 million), Air Asia ($220.32 million) and Tiger Airways ($175.94 million).

“As expected, the shares sizzled as the IPO was well received. Cebu Air managed to fly past by the day’s negative sentiment in the market,” said Astro del Castillo, managing director at local fund management firm First Grade Holdings. Explaining the market’s strong appetite for the shares, he said: “It’s the only airline that’s really listed in the market and is profitable.”

The carrier sold 186.6 million shares, or 30.4 percent of its outstanding stock, of which 70 percent was taken up by foreign investors and the rest by local investors. The shares, mostly secondary shares sold by parent firm JG Summit Holdings Inc., were transferred to public hands via special block sales at the local bourse.

Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG Hong Kong branch and J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. acted as joint global coordinators, book runners and international lead managers for this offering, while ATR KimEng Capital Partners Inc. was the domestic underwriter.

Including the over-allotment shares, Cebu Air could sell shares worth a total of P26.8 billion, making it the second-biggest IPO in local stock market history. The over-allotment option covering 27.99 million shares has yet to be finalized but there were buyers already lined up to take up the shares, said Cebu Air senior vice president BJ Sebastian.

Sebastian added that Cebu Air has yet to declare employee stock option plans under the offering.


Most U.S. Stocks Retreat as Kimberly-Clark, U.S. Steel Fall

Most U.S. stocks fell, led by consumer-staples companies, as results that disappointed investors at companies from Kimberly-Clark Corp. to U.S. Steel Corp. overshadowed higher-than-estimated consumer confidence.

Kimberly-Clark Corp., the maker of Huggies diapers and Kleenex tissues, lost 5.8 percent as profit dropped amid higher costs for materials. U.S. Steel tumbled 3.4 percent after a surprise quarterly loss because of repair costs. International Business Machines Corp. climbed 0.6 percent after its board authorized buying back as much as $10 billion in shares.

About eight stocks retreated for every seven that rose on U.S. exchanges. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed at 1,185.64 at 4 p.m. in New York, with 273 companies declining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.41 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,169.46, with IBM contributing the most to the gain in the share price-weighted average.

“We’ve had some modestly disappointing earnings reports from a couple of bellwether companies such as U.S. Steel,” said Dean Gulis, part of a group that manages $3 billion for Loomis Sayles & Co. in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. “The earnings environment is a little less buoyant than it has been and people are using the opportunity to consolidate their positions after a strong run.”


Treasury Inflation Bets Climb to Five-Month High on Prospects for Easing

Treasury-market inflation bets rose to a five-month high as traders wagered that bond purchases by the Federal Reserve will spur consumer-price gains.

The gap between yields on U.S. 10-year notes and equivalent Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of price expectations called the breakeven rate, widened on investor bets the Fed will succeed in sparking inflation. Still, the government’s auction of $35 billion of two-year notes drew higher-than-average demand amid speculation the central bank’s efforts won’t bring the economy back to full speed quickly.

“When the Fed tells you inflation is too low and they want it to go higher, you have to listen,” said Jay Mueller, who manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo & Co. in Milwaukee. “The TIPS market is taking them seriously.”

The yield on benchmark 10-year securities increased eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 2.643 percent at 5:14 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It touched 2.6448 percent, the highest level since Sept. 21. The 2.625 percent security due in August 2020 dropped 21/32, or $6.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 27/32.

Two-year yields rose three basis points to 0.39 percent, versus the record low of 0.327 percent set Oct. 12. Thirty-year bond yields climbed as much as 10 basis points to 4.01 percent, the highest since Oct. 15. Treasuries overall have lost 0.02 percent this month, the first decline since March, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index.

The gap between rates on 10-year notes and TIPS was 2.18 percentage points after touching 2.19 percentage points, the widest since May 18. A $10 billion sale of five-year TIPS yesterday drew a yield of minus 0.55 percent, the first negative yield at a U.S. debt sale, as investors speculated they will have positive returns when inflation picks up.


Oil Declines as Forecast Gain in U.S. Inventories Signals Slowing Demand

Crude oil declined for the first time in three days as the dollar rebounded against the yen and euro, reducing the appeal of raw materials as an investment.

Oil fell as much as 0.9 percent as the U.S. currency rose from its lowest level in 15 years versus the yen on concern Japanese authorities will renew action to weaken their currency. An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show crude- oil supplies climbed 1.25 million barrels last week, according to the median of 12 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The stronger dollar has put some pressure on the oil market,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a trading-advisory company in New Canaan, Connecticut. The oil market and the strength of the euro have been very tightly correlated recently.’’

Crude oil for December delivery declined 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $81.94 a barrel at 9:14 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 4.1 percent from a year ago.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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