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Monday, February 7, 2011

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Philippine Markets: 07 February 2011


07 February 2011

USD/PhP: 43.63 - 0.14 PSEi: 3880.03 + 7.68
USD/JPY: 82.46 PFINC: 872.52 + 0.52
EUR/USD: 1.3588 BDO: 50.30 - 0.20
GBP/USD: 1.6152 BPI: 53.60 + 0.80
PDSTF3M: 3.6673 MBT: 62.90 - 0.55
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Asian stocks mixed following US jobs data

Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday after a US jobs report gave a muddy picture of the state of the world's biggest economy, while concerns over Egypt pushed oil back above $100.

Tokyo ended 0.46 percent, or 48.52 points, higher at 10,592.04 and Seoul added 0.47 percent, or 9.71 points, to 2,081.74.

Sydney closed 0.12 percent, or 5.8 points, up at 4,868.5 while Hong Kong fell 0.49 percent by the break and Singapore was 0.14 percent stronger.

Trade was quiet across the region as dealers in many markets returned to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, although Shanghai and Taipei remained closed.

"The trend of a global equity market rise is continuing on the back of a stable recovery in the US economy," Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at Nikko Cordial Securities, told Dow Jones Newswires.

The United States released data Friday showing just 36,000 non-farm jobs were created in January, far fewer than the 148,000 expected.

However, it also said the unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent of the workforce from 9.4 percent.

Normally such a big decline in the jobless rate would boost optimism over the country's recovery – the rate has been above nine percent for 22 months.

But the government said the fall came after recalculations on population. At the same time it said the low job creation number was because of the apparent impact of huge snowstorms in January, which skewed data collection.

Tokyo's Nikkei was lifted by exporters on the back of a weakening yen as well as merger activity – stoked by reports last week of tie-up talks between Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Industries.

The fall in the jobs rate was enough to send dealers into the dollar instead of the yen, which gave a lift to Japanese exporters.

In Tokyo trade the dollar fetched 82.23 yen, compared with 82.19 in New York late Friday.

The euro gained to $1.3608 dollars from $1.3583, and rose to 111.89 yen from 111.62 yen.

"Encouraging economic data, particularly in the US, has helped to shield markets to some extent... the main impact of Egypt and Middle East contagion continues to be felt on oil prices although we believe this will be short-lived," Credit Agricole said in a note to clients.

Brent North Sea crude for March advanced 42 cents to $100.25 a barrel in the afternoon while New York's main future contract, light sweet crude for March, was up 24 cents at $89.27.

Crude traders have been edgy since the uprising in Egypt began nearly two weeks ago with demands for President Hosni Mubarak to step down.

While Egypt is not a major crude producer, it is home to the Suez Canal, which carries about 2.4 million barrels daily, roughly equal to Iraq's output.

Traders are also concerned about the wider ramifications of the events in Egypt on the oil-rich Middle East.

Gold opened at $1,347.80-$1,348.80 an ounce in Hong Kong, up from Wednesday's close of $1,340.70-$1,341.70.

The market was closed on Thursday and Friday for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In other markets:

-- Manila rose 0.20 percent, or 7.68 points, to 3,880.03.

Aboitiz Power added 1.1 percent to 27.50 pesos and Metropolitan Bank & Trust was down 0.9 percent at 62.90 while Union Bank edged down 0.1 percent to 58.40.

-- Wellington rose 0.58 percent, or 19.59 points, to 3,387.41.

Fletcher Building rose 2.4 percent to NZ$8.23 and Auckland Airport added 0.9 percent to NZ$2.26 but Telecom shed 1.3 percent to NZ$2.21.



BDO UNIBANK INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 07 February 2011



SMC eyes venture with Citra, HK firm

San Miguel Corp. is forming a three-way partnership with Indonesian conglomerate Citra Lamtoro Gung Persada (Citra) and Star Tollway Corp. to merge local toll-road operations and create a stronger entity that can actively seek big-ticket infrastructure projects under the public-private partnership (PPP) framework.

Inquirer sources said that a due-diligence audit was now ongoing among the three parties with the objective of pooling their Philippine tollway interests to create a single vehicle with greater financial muscle in bidding for PPP projects.

San Miguel expects to own majority of the consolidated entity over time, the sources said. By bundling their interests, the three groups aim to gain better leverage in funding large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly toll roads, under the Aquino administration, the sources said.

Asked last Saturday when the likely closing of the deal with Citra and Star could happen, San Miguel president Ramon Ang said the parties “hope to sign [soon],” declining to provide additional details.

Other sources familiar with the scheme said the three-way merger was the basis of Ang’s earlier statement that the Skyway and Star toll roads had been offered to San Miguel. But the sources added that the deal would push through only if San Miguel would get the controlling stake in the unified vehicle, which means that the local conglomerate will get an indirect stake in Citra and Star’s local tollroad projects.

Citra is a leading Indonesian infrastructure company whose core business includes expressway development and toll-road operations. It is the joint-venture partner of the state-owned Philippine National Construction Corp. in Metro Manila Tollway Corp. that, in turn, is responsible for the South Metro Manila skyway project.

Star Tollway, on the other hand, is led by Hong Kong-based group Cypress Tree Ltd. It operates the 19-kilometer Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (Star) from Lipa to Batangas City and has been tapped as a partner of San Miguel in other prospective infrastructure projects.

For its part, San Miguel leads the building of the Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Toll Expressway and the North Luzon East Expressway.

The first project is an 88-kilometer expressway that will extend from La Paz, Tarlac (the end of the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway), to Rosario, La Union. Once completed by 2013, the new road intends to cut by half the present travel time from Manila to Baguio.

The 55.8-kilometer North Luzon East project, on the other hand, will extend from Commonwealth Avenue in Quezon City to as far north as Tuguegarao City in Cagayan province.


Dollar Is Near Two-Week High on Recovery Signs, Treasury Yields

The dollar was within 0.3 percent of a two-week high against the euro before reports this week that economists said will show consumer borrowing rose for a third month and optimism among small businesses increased.

The greenback was also bolstered as 10-year Treasury yields were three basis points below the highest level since May after U.S. unemployment rate fell to the lowest since April 2009. The euro was weaker amid signs of discord within the European Union on how to solve the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Australia’s dollar declined against 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts after a government report showed retail sales climbed in December by less than some economists forecast.

“The Treasury market has spoken and we regard that as significant enough to put on a long Dollar Index position,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It looks like a tipping point for U.S. yields and we don’t think low-yielding currencies like euro, yen and sterling can sustain their recent strength when the yield story is working against them.”

The U.S. currency traded at $1.3580 per euro as of 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3581 on Feb. 4, after advancing 0.2 percent last week and reaching as high as $1.3544, the strongest since Jan. 24. The dollar bought 82.25 yen from 82.18 and was at $1.6107 per pound from $1.6111. The euro fetched 111.69 yen from 111.62 in New Yorklast week.

Westpac recommends investors bet on gains in the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts including the euro, yen and pound. The bank’s initial target for the gauge is 80, it said in an e-mailed note to clients. The index traded unchanged at 78.044.

U.S. Economy

Consumer borrowing in the U.S. climbed by $2.5 billion in December after increasing $1.3 billion the previous month, the Federal Reserve is forecast to say today. Confidence among U.S. small businesses probably rose in January, a private survey may show tomorrow. The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index increased to 93.8 from December’s 92.6 reading, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose as high as 3.66 percent on Feb. 4, the most since May 4, after theunemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 9 percent last month from 9.4 percent in December. Employers added 36,000 workers, the Labor Department said in its report Feb. 4.

The Australian dollar weakened for a second day against the greenback after its statistics bureau said the nation’s retail sales gained 0.2 percent in December, less than the median forecast for a 0.5 percent gain. The so-called Aussie fell 0.2 percent to $1.0124.


Oil Rebounds From One-Week Low Amid Optimism About U.S. Economy

Oil rose for the first time in three days in New York as an unexpected decline in the jobless rate in the U.S. bolstered optimism fuel demand will increase in the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation.

Futures retraced some of the 1.7 percent decline posted Feb. 4 after the Labor Department said that unemployment dropped in January to 9 percent from December’s 9.4 percent. Employers added 36,000 workers, short of the 146,000 median gain projected by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Oil’s getting a little bit of support from the jobs data,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “The unemployment number is good, but the increase in jobs isn’t. It’s probably a bit of a knee-jerk reaction from Asia.”

The March contract gained as much as 47 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $89.50 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $89.38 at 12:02 p.m. Sydney time. It declined $1.51 to settle at $89.03 on Feb. 4, the lowest since Jan. 27. Prices fell 0.4 percent last week and are up 24 percent the past year.

Brent crude for March settlement added 65 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $100.48 a barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It declined $1.93, or 1.9 percent, to end the session at $99.83 on Feb. 4.

Egyptian natural gas exports to Israel and Jordan may be halted for as long as two weeks after an explosion damaged a pipeline in the Sinai Desert Feb. 5, Egyptian Oil Minister Sameh Fahmy told state television.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

BDO UNIBANK INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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