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Friday, October 22, 2010

Philippines Markets: 22 October 2010


22 October 2010

USD/PhP: 43.34 (as of 3:30pm) PSEi: 4286.87 + 37.82
USD/JPY: 81.13 PFINC: 960.41 + 8.85
EUR/USD: 1.3900 BDO: 60.00 unch
GBP/USD: 1.5698 BPI: 56.60 - 0.25
PDSTF3M: 3.7635 MBT: 74.00 + 2.45
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Philippine Interest Rate Outlook

Secondary money market rates moved sideways to down this week despite national government's report of another month of deficit amounting to 31.7 billion pesos. This brings the year to date deficit to 259.8 billion pesos during the first nine months of 2010. Continue to expect rates to move sideways.

Philippines Equities Outlook

Local shares continued to trek upward, rising 1.67 percent week on week to 4,286.87 despite a flash drop earlier on the trading week. Optimism on 3Q earnings continue to stir local and foreign investors to buy local shares.

Chartwise, the week's close at 4286.87 continues to support further rallies towards the 4,250-4,500 levels. Immediate support and resistance is seen at 4,150 and 4,250 levels, respectively.

Philippine Peso Outlook

As of 3:30 pm, the local currency depreciated this week against the dollar as the dollar strengthened against major currencies particularly the Euro. The currency hit a low of 43.64 during the early part of the week but recovered as inflows buoyed the Philippine Peso.

Chartwise, expect the currency to range between 43.15-43.50 levels.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 22 October 2010



9-month budget deficit hits P259.8B

The government incurred a budget deficit of P259.8 billion in the nine months to September, 5 percent lower than the P273.7-billion ceiling, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said Thursday.

Purisima said, however, that overspending for the period was P22.3 billion, or 9.4-percent higher, than the deficit incurred in the same period in 2009.

He said the government’s “over-performance” in terms of its fiscal position could be attributed to less spending—by P54.2 billion year on year—“partly on account of the savings in interest payments due to lower borrowing cost.”

According to National Treasurer Roberto B. Tan, the government saved P11.4 billion in interest payments, shelling out only P244 billion during the period.

The budget deficit for the first three quarters of the year represented about 80 percent of the projected full-year deficit ceiling of P325 billion.

Purisima said the main revenue agencies boosted the government’s fiscal standing with collections reaching P894.7 billion, or 6.5 percent, higher than last year’s P839.8 billion.

However, actual revenues were P40.4 billion short of the targeted P935.1 billion.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue contributed P607.3 billion, up 9 percent from year-ago collections but 2.2 percent below its target.

The Bureau of Customs chipped in P191.7 billion, up 15.5 percent year on year but down 9.1 percent against the target.

The Bureau of the Treasury turned in P45.5 billion, which was 12.8 percent lower than the P52.2 billion earned last year.

Expenditures for the first nine months reached P1.15 trillion, increasing by 7.2 percent from P1.03 trillion a year ago.

“Let me reiterate that this administration remains focused on its good governance agenda with emphasis on tax enforcement and expenditure discipline,” Purisima said. “We will pursue our economic objectives of sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction within a sound fiscal framework.”

In September alone, the deficit amounted to P31.7 billion, higher by 15.2 percent than the P27.5 billion incurred in the same month of 2009.

Total revenues for the month reached P91.9 billion, a decrease of 8.7 percent from P100.7 billion.

Of the total, the BIR chipped in P61 billion, which was 8.4 percent higher than the year-ago level of P56.2 billion. Customs contributed P20.2 billion, an increase of 10.8 percent from P18.3 billion, and the Treasury turned in P5.3 billion, short of last year’s P6 billion by 12 percent.


Peso won’t hit P41:$1 this year -- Aquino

THE PESO is unlikely to hit P41 per US dollar this year, President Benigno C. Aquino III yesterday said, noting central bank efforts to address capital inflows that are affecting exporters as well as families of overseas Filipino workers.

"The P41 [per dollar rate], perhaps [will] not [happen] this year. The P43-44 level has a little bit of comfort," Mr. Aquino said in Cauayan, Isabela, yesterday after visiting areas affected by typhoon Juan.

"[The] Bangko Sentral [ng Pilipinas] is doing its job well in trying to achieve some stability in terms of exchange rate."

The President was commenting on an HSBC forecast that the currency could strengthen to as high as P41 per dollar by yearend.

"That [a strong peso], of course, negatively impacts our exports sector which is rebounding already, contributing a lot to the national economy," Mr. Aquino said.

He added that it "negatively impacts our remittances", referring to the reduced amounts migrant worker families would be getting.

The peso has gained around 6% since the start of the year.


U.S. Stocks Rise on Corporate Earnings, Jobless Claims Data

U.S. stocks rose, sending benchmark indexes higher for a second day, as better-than-estimated earnings from EBay Inc. to McDonald’s Corp. and a drop in jobless claims helped offset a slump in financial companies amid speculation that banks face more losses from bad mortgages.

EBay, the owner of second-most visited e-commerce site, jumped 6 percent, while McDonald’s climbed 1.3 percent. Netflix Inc., the movie-rental service, surged 13 percent after raising subscriber projections. Bank of America Corp. slid 3.3 percent. Alcoa Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. slumped at least 1.3 percent as commodities prices sank amid a rebound in the dollar.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.2 percent to 1,180.26 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier declining as much as 0.6 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38.60 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,146.57 and earlier topped the highest level on a closing basis since the week Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September 2008.


Treasuries Tumble as Investors Balk at Low Yields, Wait for Fed Decision

Treasuries fell, pushing 30-year yields up for the first time in four days, as investors balked at low yields amid speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will buy debt to spur the economy and, if so, how much.

Yields on the longest-maturity U.S. securities earlier matched the lowest level in a week after two Federal Reserve policy makers said yesterday another round of debt purchases by the central bank may not be needed, reducing concern inflation will balloon. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard proposed today that the central bank buy $100 billion in long-term Treasuries next month and consider more purchases later.

“In terms of Treasuries, I wouldn’t touch them with a 10- foot pole, except maybe on the short side,” Steven Leuthold, whose Leuthold Core Investment Fund has beaten 88 percent of its rivals in the past five years, said in an interview with Betty Liu on “In the Loop” on Bloomberg Television. “Yields are so skimpy it makes no sense for people to be putting money in anything other than very, very short-term bonds.”

The 30-year bond yield climbed seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 3.96 percent at 4:58 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It earlier fell to 3.87 percent for a second day, the lowest level since Oct. 14, after reaching a 2010 high of 4.86 percent in April. The price of the 3.875 percent security maturing in August 2040 tumbled 1 1/4, or $12.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 1/2.

The 10-year note yield rose seven basis points to 2.55 percent. Its high for the year, also in April, was 4.01 percent.


Oil Rebounds After U.S. Jobless Figures, Indicators Prompt Growth Optimism

Oil rose in New York after U.S. jobless claims fell and a gauge of the economy’s prospects rose in September for a third month, signaling a recovery in fuel demand in the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation.

Futures retraced some of yesterday’s 2.4 percent decline after the New York-based Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators climbed 0.3 percent, matching the median forecast of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Oct. 15, Labor Department figures showed.

The December contract gained as much as 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.85 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $80.80 at 9:23 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday it decreased $1.98 to $80.56. Prices are 0.5 percent lower for the week and down 0.5 percent this year.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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