Philippine Markets: 16 March 2011

16 March 2011

USD/PhP: 43.755 - 0.065 PSEi: 3878.44 - 17.87
USD/JPY: 80.96 PFINC: 862.26 + 3.54
EUR/USD: 1.3976 BDO: 49.05 + 0.05
GBP/USD: 1.6105 BPI: 54.70 - 0.80
PDSTF3M: 1.6462 MBT: 61.75 + 1.45
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


PH stock prices continue to slide
By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines—Local stock prices fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as fears of a nuclear meltdown in Japan, the world's third-largest economy, injected a new wave of global jitters.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index closed 17.87 points lower or 0.46 percent at 3,878.44.

Value turnover was extraordinary at P26 billion as there was a block sale estimated at P21 billion involving San Miguel Corp. The company was to make an announcement later in the day about the transaction, a company spokesperson said.

A stock trader said 300 million San Miguel shares were crossed at P70 per share.

The local market opened strongly but encountered some resistance near 3,900, thereby falling for the rest of the session but buying support close to 3,860 tempered the fall of the main index.

Despite the overall decline, there were 68 advancers against 60 decliners while 40 stocks were unchanged.

The day's decline was led by the services counter, which fell by 2.85 percent. The rest of the counters closed in positive territory.

PLDT, AEV, Aboitiz Power, Metro Pacific Investments, SM Prime and ICTSI weighed down the index.

On the other hand, investors snapped up shares of EDC, SM Investments, DMCI, AGI, First Gen, FPH, Semirara Mining, Cebu Air, Metrobank, Nickel Asia, Ayala, Banco de Oro and San Miguel.

Outside the P21-billion block sale, SMC shares were up by 1.4 percent to P162.50 on Wednesday.

Phivolcs: Marikina Valley fault line 'ripe' for movement
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/215380/nation/phivolcs-marikina-valley-fault-line-ripe-for-movement

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on Wednesday said the Marikina West Valley fault line, supposedly capable of producing a 7.2-magnitude earthquake, is ripe for movement.

"Ripe na gumalaw ang fault. Napakataas ng probability na gumalaw ito in the future, hindi lang natin masabi ng exact date and time," Phivolcs deputy director Bartolome Bautista said during a Senate inquiry on the country's disaster preparedness on Wednesday.

(The fault is ripe for movement. There is a high probability that it will move in the future, we just cannot say the exact date and time.)

Bautista explained that the earthquake fault, which runs from the Sierra Madre mountain range to Tagaytay, moves every 200 to 400 years.

The last time that the fault moved was 200 years ago, he said.

"Pumapasok na siya sa recurrence time, pasok sa cycle (It fits the recurrence time, it fits the cycle)," he said.

Bautista said they cannot yet determine what would trigger the fault's movement but that they are relying on pre-quake shocks to signal its movement.

"Iba-iba yung pag-uugali ng faults (Faults move differently)," he said.

Reinforcement of structures

During the Senate inquiry, Public Works Secretary Rogelio Singson said they have identified nine bridges that need to be repaired and 11 other bridges that have to be retrofitted to withstand stong earthquakes.

Singson said they are working with the Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers to assess old, private high-rise buildings, especially those that are at least 15 years old.

They have already assessed 1,100 public buildings in Metro Manila, some of which he said they have condemned.

Singson said infrastructure in the provinces will also be assessed.

"We have directed all building officials in their areas of jurisdiction (to do the same)," he said during Wednesday's Senate hearing.

Senators Loren Legarda and Juan Miguel Zubiri, however, asked Singson to give priority to inspecting the mass transit systems in the country.

As of posting time, the Senate inquiry was ongoing.

Disaster preparedness

The Senate inquiry on the country's disaster preparedness on Wednesday was being conducted by two Senate committees — environment and natural resources and climate change.

The senators are conducting an investigation into the government's preparedness for natural disasters similar to the magnitude-9 earthquake that recently hit Japan.

"We shall focus on the technical aspects of our local disaster preparedness... as well as the state of the country’s early warning system for disasters such as tsunamis and earthquakes," said climate change committee chairman Senator Loren Legarda.

Aside from the inquiry into the "structural integrity" of the country's buildings and civil infrastructure, the senators also want to determine whether the country's utilities have back-up systems for times of disaster. - VVP/HS, GMA News


Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher
(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 16 March 2011

Gov’t posts P13.4B budget surplus Customs, BIR collections increased sharply in Jan. By Ronnel Domingo Philippine Daily Inquirer MANILA, Philippines—The government posted a budget surplus of P13.4 billion in January as revenues jumped 47 percent, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said Tuesday. The January fiscal position reversed a deficit of P37.1 billion posted in the same month of 2010. The surplus was registered “on the back of much improved revenue collections and the P24-billion remittances of government-owned and controlled corporations (GOCCs)” to the Treasury, Purisima said. The finance chief added that a primary surplus of P49.3 billion was posted in January, “which is the sixth primary surplus posted by the Aquino administration from July 2010.” The government’s fiscal position computed without interest payments is the so-called primary surplus or deficit. Documents from the Bureau of the Treasury showed that total government revenues in January reached P135.9 billion, or 47.3-percent higher than the P92.3 billion a year ago. Of the total, the Bureau of Internal Revenue accounted for P74.6 billion, or 15.4-percent higher than last year’s P64.6 billion. Internal Revenue Commissioner Kim S. Henares said the agency’s January collections surpassed the month’s target of P71.97 billion by P2.59 billion or about 3.6 percent. “Meeting the target [in] the first month of the year is a good signal for the BIR,” Henares said. “However, it is still early in the year and we will continue our efforts to collect from everyone what is due.” The Bureau of Customs collected P20.5 billion in January, 16.6-percent better than the P17.6 billion a year ago. The Bureau of the Treasury yielded P31 billion, up six times from P5.2 billion, while other revenue offices turned in P9.8 billion, double the P4.9 billion last year. Expenditures also fell 5.3 percent to P122.5 billion from P129.4 billion in January 2010. “The trend improvement in cash collections of the BIR and BOC since the last quarter of 2010 clearly shows that the reforms implemented by the Aquino administration … as well as the intensified campaign against tax evaders and smugglers have started to produce good results,” Purisima said. He noted that Customs, since July last year, has filed 28 criminal complaints that have a combined dutiable value of P42.5 billion and involved 134 respondents consisting of importers, brokers and BOC employees. Financial woes hit Banco Filipino www.bworldonline.com THRIFT BANK Banco Filipino Savings and Mortgage Ban closed its doors to its depositors yesterday after panic withdrawals since last week depleted it of cash. A bank official said Banco Filipino had not declared a bank holiday and was waiting for a P3-billion emergency loan from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in order to service withdrawals. The central bank did not give any indication that it was granting the request. A text message yesterday from Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp. President Jose C. Nograles alerted reporters to Banco Filipino’s troubles. He said: "We have received reports of non-servicing of deposit withdrawals. Ball is in the court of the BSP. We are awaiting their action on the matter." A call to the Banco Filipino hotline confirmed this, with the operator saying "We are not processing any transactions today. Hopefully, by tomorrow, we can process your request." A March 14 memo by Maxy S. Abad, Banco Filipino executive vice-president, that was distributed to branches read: "As you are all aware, we have been suffering from extraordinary financial panic caused by a well-orchestrated smear campaign quoting BSP as the source of inaccurate and malicious imputations." She said the bank had asked the BSP to deny it was the source of the news stories and provide an emergency loan. "Despite all these requests, we have not received any official word from the BSP/MB (Monetary Board) on the action they have taken, if any," Ms. Abad wrote. "Kindly inform and clarify this matter to our depositors and assure them that as soon as we receive official notice of any favorable action taken by the BSP/MB, we shall advise them accordingly." Perfecto R. Yasay, Banco Filipino vice-chairman, claimed the BSP wanted to see the financial institution closed again. The then Central Bank of the Philippines ordered Banco Filipino closed in 1985 because it could not repay emergency loans. The Supreme Court ruled the closure illegal in 1991, allowing the bank to re-open in 1994. "We have not declared a bank holiday," Mr. Yasay told BusinessWorld. "But we have not heard from the BSP, so we were not able to to service withdrawals," the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission said. He said the Monetary Board was supposed to deliberate on Banco Filipino’s loan request at 5:00 p.m. on Monday but the bank had not received any word as of yesterday. Banco Filipino, he said, has incurred a P903-million overdraft after depositors began withdrawing their savings since last week. He pointed out tabloid stories that allegedly quoted unnamed BSP officials as saying Banco Filipino was mismanaged and "tagilid" (shaky) as source for the bank’s woes. He denied Banco Filipino was insolvent, claiming it had P30 billion in capital funds. He also said the bank had P17 billion worth of deposits in its 62 branches nationwide. If at all, he claimed the central bank’s actions were "predicated." He said the BSP refused to implement a reorganization plan approved by a Makati court in November 2009 that required the central bank to infuse P25 billion because Banco Filipino did not want to drop a damage suit it had filed over the illegal closure in 1985. Banco Filipino’s P18.8-billion damage suit is against the Central Bank Board of Liquidators (CB BOL) and the BSP. "They want to see us closed again," Mr. Yasay said. The BSP, in a statement, said: "We have been receiving reports and complaints from depositors ... Accordingly, we have sent a letter addressed to the management ... asking them to explain the bank’s status ... We are now waiting for their official response." Mr. Yasay also said Banco Filipino’s delisting from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) last month was "connivance" among regulators because as early as 1994, when the bank reopened, it had requested that it be delisted. The PSE on Feb. 8 ordered the delisting, citing violations in the submission of reports. But Mr. Yasay said the BSP had allowed it not to file reports pending the implementation of the reorganization plan. The bank, he added, dutifully paid the fine the PSE imposed. -- reports from J. T. Gulane, A. S. O. Alegado and A. R. R. Gregorio

U.S. Stocks Trim Drop on Fed Statement on Economy, Easing Japan Concerns U.S. stocks escaped the brunt of a global selloff that sent Tokyo shares to their worst two-day decline since 1987, paring losses as Japanese officials made progress in stabilizing damaged nuclear reactors and the Federal Reserve said the American economy is improving. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.1 percent at 4 p.m. New York time, rebounding from a 2.7 percent slump, even as the MSCI All-Country World Index of shares in 45 nations lost 2.3 percent. The benchmark measure for U.S. equities retreated to its lowest level of the day six minutes after trading began. Raw-material, energy and industrial shares in the S&P 500 advanced more than 2.2 percent from that point. “The more positive tone of the Fed brought some relief especially on a jittery day like this one,” said Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.5 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co. “Still, there’s an overhang from exogenous factors. Yes, we’ve had a big drop, but I wouldn’t jump in right away. I would wait until the market calms down to take a fresher look at some stocks and industries.” The S&P 500 closed at 1,281.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 137.74 points, or 1.2 percent, to 11,855.42 after plunging 296.91 points. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average fell 11 percent today and is down 16 percent this week, the biggest two- day drop since the October 1987 stock market crash. Treasury Two-Year Notes Erase Gains as Fed Cites U.S. Recovery’s Momentum Treasury two-year notes erased gains, pushing yields up from this year’s low, as the Federal Reserve said the recovery is gaining strength and “conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.” Benchmark 10-year notes and 30-year bonds remained higher as investors sought refuge amid concern a nuclear accident outside Tokyo may cripple the global economy and the Fed said in its statement higher energy prices will have a temporary effect on inflation. The Fed reaffirmed its plan to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. “There’s a definite feeling at the Fed that the economy has created a better foundation,” said John Spinello, chief technical strategist in New York at Jefferies Group Inc., one of 20 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “That offsets the flight to quality we saw in the front end due to the geopolitical events and the disaster in Japan.” Yields on two-year notes increased almost one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 0.61 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 0.625 percent note maturing in February 2013 dropped less than 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 1/32. Two-year note yields earlier fell nine basis points to 0.50 percent, the lowest level since Dec. 7. Yields on 10-year notes dropped five basis points to 3.30 percent after declining 15 basis points, the most on an intraday basis since Dec. 29. Thirty-year bond yields slid eight basis points to 4.45 percent.

Oil Trades Near Two-Week Low After Falling on Outlook for Japan's Demand Oil traded near a two-week low in New York as concern that damage from Japan’s earthquake will curb crude demand outweighed speculation of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Futures tumbled the most in almost five months yesterday after explosions and fire struck Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima nuclear plant. The March 11 temblor caused a tsunami that disabled cooling systems at the facility. Bahrain declared a state of emergency as a second contingent of troops from Gulf nations poured into the kingdom, while Libyan government forces moved against rebels. “The unrest in Libya has been pushed to the back burner by the tragedy in Japan,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. The crisis “at the Fukushima plant is a sign that we’re looking at a longer-term problem, which will have a considerable impact on the Japanese economy.” Crude for April delivery traded at $97.30 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:24 a.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $4.01, or 4 percent, to $97.18, the lowest since Feb. 28. Prices fell the most since Oct. 19 and are up 19 percent from a year ago. Brent oil for April settlement declined $5.15, or 4.5 percent, to $108.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday, the biggest one-day drop since Feb. 4, 2010. Prices fell to a three-week low.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

BDO UNIBANK INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher
(632) 858-3001