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Monday, July 25, 2011

Philippine Markets: 25 July 2011


25 July 2011 

USD/PhP:          42.39        - 0.01                PSEi:             4480.50                        + 2.14 
USD/JPY:           78.24                        PFINC:                   1015.39                        + 1.18 
EUR/USD:         1.4348                        BDO:                  61.95                        - 0.55 
GBP/USD:         1.6284                        BPI:                  59.45                        + 0.15 
PDSTF3M:         2.7442                        MBT:               77.00                        + 0.45 
Prices as of  4:00pm                        Source: Bloomberg, Reuters 


Stocks slightly up ahead of Aquino’s SONA 
By: Doris C. Dumlao 
Philippine Daily Inquirer 

MANILA, Philippines—The local stocks index was marginally up on Monday ahead of President Aquino’s second State-of-the-Nation-Address.
The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index added 2.14 points or 0.048 percent to finish at 4,480.50.

Trading was mixed across counters.  The financial, holding firms and property counters firmed up while the industrial, services and mining/oil counters traded in the red.
Value turnover was thin at P4.3 billion as financial markets awaited what the President had to say during the SONA Monday afternoon.
Despite the slight index gain, there were 75 advancers which were edged out by 80 decliners while 39 stocks were unchanged.


BDO UNIBANK, INC.

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001 

Morning Brief: 25 July 2011


Congress to pass budget, priority bills

THE 15TH CONGRESS starts its second regular session today with approval of next year’s P1.816-trillion national budget and the administration’s priority measures on its to-do list.Legislators yesterday claimed the proposed 2012 outlay, which MalacaƱang said it would submit to the House of Representatives tomorrow, would be approved by yearend.
“The budget will surely be passed by December,” Senate Majority Leader Vicente C. Sotto III said in a phone interview.
“Definitely,” House Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte, Jr. (4th district, Quezon City) also said.
Similar promises were made by Senator Franklin M. Drilon and Cavite Rep. Joseph Emilio A. Abaya, chairmen of the budget committees.
Aside from the budget, lawmakers said they would also be busy debating the remaining 20 of the Palace’s 23 priority measures.
Of the bills endorsed by the Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council, only those streamlining compensation at state-owned firms, deferring this year’s Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao elections and lifting the prohibition against night work for women have so far been signed into law.
Congress leaders said that among the priority measures to be approved during the second regular session that will last until June next year are the anti-trust, fiscal incentives rationalization, government procurement reform, land use and public-private partnership development acts; changes to the anti-money laundering and power industry reform laws; establishing the country’s archipelagic sea lanes; witness protection and whistleblower laws; and creation of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Priority bills that may take more time include the Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Act, increasing the number of years for basic education, and water utilities reforms.
Ramon C. Casiple, political analyst at the University of the Philippines, said: “the burden now is in the second regular session. Both Senate and House would have to be more productive ... committees have already been organized and the LEDAC already convened”.

Stocks: Big week ahead

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Strap in for an eventful week in the markets.The debt ceiling clock is ticking and politics is strangling policy in Washington. At stake: The creditworthiness of the United States.

Meanwhile, the end of the week will bring an important report on the economy: The first official reading on growth in the second quarter -- a period when the recovery lost steam.
Finally, 180 companies in the S&P 500 report quarterly financial results. Among them are oil titan Exxon Mobil (XOMFortune 500), industrial conglomerate 3M (MMMFortune 500), automaker Ford (FFortune 500) and drug maker Merck (MRKFortune 500).
Earnings season has been solid so far. Of the 143 members of the S&P that have reported results, 75% have beaten analysts' expectations, according to data provided by Thomson Reuters.
"Corporate America is doing very well, and earnings continue to grow and companies are continuing to increase their guidance," said Kate Warne, investment strategist with Edward Jones. "It's a great indication for stock prices going forward."
While earnings remain strong, investors' attention has been elsewhere -- particularly on the U.S. debt crisis.
The Aug. 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching.
On Capitol Hill, legislative leaders spent the weekend in talks to try to strike a deal, which has proven elusive for weeks. House Speaker John Boehner said he wants to make an announcement about a solution for the crisis on Sunday before the Asian markets open. Markets in Tokyo open at 8 p.m. ET.

Market observers say they remain confident that Congress will raise the legal borrowing cap in time, but each day that passes with more political rhetoric and no agreement adds to investor anxieties.
"While the economic data and company earnings are important, they pale in comparison if the news is that the president and the speaker have reached a deal," said Phil Orlando, market strategist with Federated Investors.
Stocks posted solid gains last week, with the Dow rising more than 1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising more than 2%. Analysts cited seeming progress on both the U.S. debt ceiling issue and the ongoing European debt crisis as partial reasons.
In the week ahead, investors will get several economic reports. Second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is at the top of the list.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect that the U.S. economy grew at a mediocre 1.6% annual rate in the second three months of the year, as the Japanese earthquake, bad weather and high commodity prices weighed on economic activity.
On the Docket:
Monday: After the market close, investors will get results from chip maker Texas Instruments (TXNFortune 500) and video rental company Netflix (NFLX). The results from Netflix will be closely watched, in part due to the massive run Netflix shareshave had this year -- up nearly 60%.
Analysts expect that Netflix will post a profit of $1.11 a share, while Texas Instruments is expected to earn 53 cents per share.
There is no economic data scheduled for release on Monday.
Tuesday: Investors will have a busy day on Tuesday, with companies such as 3M, Ford, US Steel (XFortune 500) and First Solar (FSLR) reporting results.
Shipping giant UPS (UPSFortune 500), which is typically considered an economic bellwether, also reports before the bell on Tuesday. The company is expected to post a profit of $1.04 per share.
The S&P Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for release at 9 a.m. ET. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence report and the Commerce Department's new home sales report will be out at 10 a.m. ET.
Economists expect that home prices fell 4.4% in May, while consumer confidence fell to a reading of 56.0 in July. New home sales are expected to remain roughly unchanged at 320,000 units.
Video game publisher Electronic Arts (ERTS) and online retailer Amazon.com (AMZNFortune 500) are scheduled to report their results after the closing bell.
Wednesday: Wall Street will get quarterly results from Dow component Boeing (BAFortune 500) before the bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect the aerospace giant will post a profit of 96 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters.
Other companies reporting before the bell include Dow Chemical (DOWFortune 500), glass maker Corning (GLWFortune 500) and oil conglomerate ConocoPhillips (COPFortune 500).
The Commerce Department will release June durable goods figures at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve releasing its July "Beige Book" at 2 p.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect that durable good orders rose by 0.4% in June.
After the closing bell, credit card processing company Visa (VFortune 500) will report its results.
Thursday: Oil giant Exxon Mobil reports its quarterly numbers before the opening bell. Analysts expect that Exxon earned $2.33 a share, helped in part by elevated oil prices.
The Labor Department will put out its weekly jobless claims numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET; economists expect claims fell by 3,000 to 415,000.
Investors will also get results from MetLife (METFortune 500) and Starbucks (SBUXFortune 500) after Thursday's closing bell.
Friday: Two Dow members will report their results before Friday's bell: drug maker Merck (MRKFortune 500) and oil giant Chevron (CVXFortune 500). Analysts are looking for Merck to post a profit of 95 cents a share, while Chevron is expected to earn $3.56 a share.
Investors will get the first reading on second-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET. Out after the bell is the Chicago purchasing managers index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. 

Oil Falls in New York After U.S. Lawmakers Fail to Reach Debt Agreement

Oil declined for the first time in five days in New York after lawmakers failed to increase the debt limit in the U.S., the biggest crude-consuming nation.Futures slipped as much as 0.9 percent after House Speaker John Boehner told Republicans that there’s no agreement on a plan for raising the ceiling before a default threatened for Aug. 2. A Republican congressional official said Boehner, speaking by telephone to lawmakers, is reporting that discussions are continuing. The impasse has boosted the chance Standard & Poor’s will cut the U.S. credit rating from AAA within three months to 50 percent, the company said July 21.
“Politicians in Washington will try their best to avert the U.S.’s first default in history,” said Ehsan Ul-Haq, a senior market analyst with KBC Energy Economics in Walton-on- Thames, England. “But if they fail to agree, markets will most probably react negatively. However, the reaction is not likely to be as severe as in the case of fears of Greek debt contagion spreading to other European countries.”
Crude for September delivery fell as much as 85 cents to $99.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $99.23 at 8:57 a.m. Sydney time. The contract advanced 2.7 percent last week, its fourth weekly gain. Prices are 26 percent higher the past year.
Brent oil for September settlement dropped as much as 67 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $118 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract traded at a premium of $18.87 a barrel to U.S. futures, compared with a record close of $22.63 on July 14.






Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.netwww.philstar.comwww.bworldonline.comwww.cnnmoney.com 

BDO UNIBANK INC. 

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher
 
(632) 858-3001 
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