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Monday, October 18, 2010

Philippine Markets: 18 October 2010

18 October 2010

USD/PhP: 43.235 + 0.06 PSEi: 4215.11 - 1.26
USD/JPY: 81.20 PFINC: 937.48 - 1.97
EUR/USD: 1.3876 BDO: 60.00 unch
GBP/USD: 1.5870 BPI: 56.00 unch
PDSTF3M: 3.9615 MBT: 68.50 - 0.45
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters



Philippines to Seek Proposals for Bond Swap as Early as Today
By Max Estayo

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippine government ask banks
for proposals to handle its peso-denominated debt swap as early
as today, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima told reporters in
Manila.
The government plans to exchange 5-, 7-, and 10-year bonds
for notes maturing in 20 years and 25 years, he said.



Philippines to Meet 2010 Budget Deficit Goal, Purisima Says
By Max Estayo

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines is working to
improve revenues and reduce expenses and is on track to meeting
the budget deficit goal this year, Finance Secretary Cesar
Purisima told reporters in Manila. The government’s fiscal
performance for September is “better than my expectations,” he
said.




Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Morning Brief: 18 October 2010



Sale of power assets put on hold
PSALM plans to issue P20B in bonds in ’11


State-run Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) may issue peso-denominated bonds early next year to raise as much as P20 billion to settle part of the maturing debts of another government agency, the cash-strapped National Power Corp.

Tapping the credit market has become very likely as the government has slowed down the privatization of various energy assets.

The appointment of Independent Power Producer Administrators (IPPA) for the Unified Leyte geothermal power plant, the Naga power plant complex and the Malaya thermal power plant has been put on hold.

The sale of Power Barges 101-104, which was initially scheduled at the end of the year, has likewise been put on hold.

PSALM said it has yet to schedule the bidding for IPPAs to administer the contracted capacities of the 782-megawatt (MW) Caliraya-Botokan-Kalayaan hydropower plants, the 100-MW Western Mindanao Power Corp., the 50-MW Southern Philippines Power Corp., the 200-MW Mindanao coal power plant, the 92.52-MW Mt. Apo 1 and 2 geothermal power plants, and the 165-MW Casecnan hydroelectric power plant.

Meanwhile, the privatization of other remaining power plants such as the Agus-Pulangui hydro complex and the 850-MW Sucat facility will follow the directions of the Department of Energy, the PSALM board or an appropriate authority.

“The sale of the Agus-Pulangui power plants, for instance, will be conducted in consultation with Congress. The Sucat plant, meanwhile, may be recommissioned by the DOE as part of its Energy Reform Agenda,” PSALM explained.

On the planned bond flotation, PSALM president and chief executive Emmanuel Ledesma Jr. said the company was “leaning toward raising the necessary funds in the local currency, considering the successful government launch of the peso bonds in September. The final choice, however, will depend on what the PSALM board will deem as more advantageous to the government.”

Ledesma said the company’s present liability management program allowed it to either tap the local capital market or engage in dollar financing to settle the obligations.

Under the Liability Management Program Phase 2, the board of PSALM has allowed the corporation to issue peso-denominated bonds or avail itself of a local credit facility to raise up to P50 billion and to conduct a dollar-bond issuance of up to $1 billion.

So far, PSALM has only tapped the domestic capital market when it raised P30 billion from the issuance of five- and seven-year fixed-rate retail bonds in April. As such, PSALM may still be able to raise a maximum of P20 billion should it decide to raise funds locally.

Proceeds from the fund-raising activities will help service Napocor’s 2011 obligations amounting to $1.2 billion. The amount consisted of a $200-million bond issue that will mature in March 2011, and $400-million worth of floating-rate notes due in August next year, Ledesma disclosed.

The new PSALM board is set to meet this week to discuss further the corporation’s liability management program as well as the privatization schedule for the remaining government-owned power assets.

The board is expected to finalize PSALM’s privatization plan for the rest of 2010 and for 2011 even as the DOE continues to review the present program.


Fewer go hungry, feel poor

Affected families, however, still number in the millions

FEWER FILIPINO FAMILIES claim to have experienced hunger or feel poor but their numbers remain in the millions, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed.

A September SWS poll, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, found 15.9% of households -- equivalent to some three million families -- claiming to have had nothing to eat at least once in the past three months, down from 21.1% in June.

Some nine million families or 48% of the respondents, meanwhile, rated themselves "mahirap" or "poor," a slight improvement from June’s 50%, while the ranks of those who considered themselves food-poor stayed unchanged at 39% or an estimated 7.1 million households.

President Benigno C. Aquino III welcomed the results and said he remained committed to good governance and improving the economy.

The latest hunger figure was down from over 20% results in the last three quarters. It is two points above the 12-year average, the SWS said, adding that hunger has stayed in double-digit territory since June 2004.

Overall hunger fell due to declines in both moderate and severe hunger, the SWS said. Moderate hunger -- experiencing it "only once" or "a few times" -- was down four points to 12.9%, equivalent to 2.4 million families, while severe hunger -- "often" or "always" having nothing to eat -- slipped a point to 3.1% or 575,000 families.

Overall hunger declined in all geographical areas, decreasing the most in Mindanao to 16.3% (700,000 families) from 26%. The Visayas saw an almost six-point dip to 15.3% (580,000 families), in the Balance of Luzon it was down almost four points to 14.7% (1.2 million families), while Metro Manila trimmed its ratio by nearly two points to 20.3% (507,000 families).

Broken down, moderate hunger declined in Mindanao to 13.3% from 21%; in the Visayas to 11.7% from 17.3%; in the Balance of Luzon to 12.3% from 14%; and in Metro Manila to 15.7% from 19%.

"The new moderate hunger rates are still higher" than their 12-year averages, the SWS said.

Severe hunger, meanwhile, was down by two points in Mindanao and the rest of Luzon to 3% and 2.3%, respectively. It stayed at 3.7% in the Visayas and rose to 4.7% from 3% in Metro Manila. The new rates are above their 12-year averages in Metro Manila and the Visayas but are lower in the Balance of Luzon and Mindanao.

By geographical area, meanwhile, self-rated poverty dropped to 40% from 44% in the rest of Luzon and to 53% from 56% in Mindanao. It increased in the Visayas to 61% from 58% and in Metro Manila to 49% from 48%.


Wall Street gets into the thick of earnings season

After obsessing over Federal Reserve policy last week, investors are now turning their attention to the tsunami of corporate earnings reports.

Seven blue-chip Dow stocks are scheduled to release third-quarter results this week: IBM, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Caterpillar, McDonald's, American Express and Verizon.


As if that weren't enough, the big banks are on tap too: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The financial sector led the market lower late last week as investors worried about the fallout from investigations into the foreclosure practices of many banks and mortgage servicers.

But wait, don't forget the techs. Results are also due from Apple, the darling of the tech sector, and Yahoo, which has been the subject of takeover talk recently.

"Earnings will be the dominant theme," said Alec Young, equity strategist at Standard & Poor's. "Economic data is always important, but earnings are going to set the tone."

While it's relatively early in the third-quarter reporting period, results have generally come in better than expected. Of the S&P 500 companies that have posted results, 83% have beat analyst estimates, according to Thomson Reuters.

Overall, analysts expect third-quarter earnings to be up 24% from a year earlier, and they expect revenue to rise 7%.

Stocks had been climbing steadily since late August, when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the central bank is prepared to use "unconventional measures" to aid the economy.

Since then, there has been growing speculation that the Fed will announce plans to resume large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasurys, a policy called quantitative easing, when it meets next month. The Fed has bought billions worth of U.S. bonds during the past two years to push down interest rates and get money into the economy.

On Friday, Bernanke gave a speech that convinced many market participants that a second round of quantitative easing, affectionately known as QE2, is all but certain.

But stock traders said the market has already "priced in" much of the potential benefit of QE2, and now it's up to company earnings to drive stock prices.

"You can only grow on the QE2 story for so long," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial. "The market went up on the notion that QE2 will unleash a wave of liquidity. But absent implementation, we're going to look at the economic data and top line revenue growth."

She said investors are focused on revenue growth for signs that corporate earnings are being driven by consumer demand, rather than cost cutting and easy comparisons to 2009. Investors will also pay close attention to what company executives have to say about the outlook for next year, she added.

"We're trying to asses the growth of global demand," said Krosby.

Stocks ended mixed Friday as weakness in the banking sector dragged the Dow lower, while technology shares remained firm. All three major gauges posted gains for the week, however.

On the docket

Monday: Government data on industrial production and capacity utilization for September are due before the market opens.

After the opening bell, the National Association of Homebuilders is scheduled to release its housing market index for October.

Companies reporting quarterly financial results early Monday include Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), while Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) and IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) are up after the closing bell.

Tuesday: A report on September housing starts and building permits comes out in the morning.

Economists expect 575,000 homes broke ground in the month, down from 598,000 in August. Building permits are expected to dip to 565,000 from 569,000, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.

In the morning, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) are schedueld to release quarterly financial statements.

Yahoo's (YHOO, Fortune 500) results come out after the market closes.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report on economic conditions across the central bank's 12 districts in the afternoon.

Results are due from Boeing, (BA, Fortune 500) Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) before the open.

Thursday: Reports on initial jobless claims, leading economic indicators and regional manufacturing activity are all on the agenda.

In addition, AT&T (T, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) are scheduled to report results early Thursday.

Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) are up after the close.

Friday: There are no economic reports on the calendar, but Honeywell (HON, Fortune 500), Schlumberger (SLB) and Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) are scheduled to report results.


Crude Oil Futures Drop to Lowest Level in Two Weeks as Dollar Strengthens

Crude oil fell to the lowest level in two weeks as the dollar strengthened, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil retreated as the Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, rebounded from a 10- month low after technical indicators suggested further declines would be difficult to sustain. The dollar declined earlier today after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted.

“The dollar focus is taking any sort of fundamental trade out of the market,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. “Crude’s kind of floating where it’s at. I think it’s close to fair value with demand and supply.”

Crude for November delivery fell $1.44, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $81.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped 1.7 percent since Oct. 8, their first weekly decline in four weeks. Futures have risen 4.7 percent in the past year.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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