THE VOICE OF BUSINESS IN NORTHERN MINDANAO

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Morning Brief: 19 January 2011




No decision yet on priorities

A CABINET MEETING convened yesterday to determine Malacañang’s legislative priorities ended with no decisions being reached as President Benigno S. C. Aquino III called for further review of a preliminary list.

The Palace, however, still expects to soon finalize the agenda as an official said a Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC) meeting could push through before the end of the month.

"The president wants a little more time ... He wanted to see more studies and wanted some figures on some particular measures," deputy spokesperson Abigail D. Valte said.

"I think the target [date for the LEDAC meeting] will still be the end of the month," she added.

The initial list of 32 measures -- drawn up in a Cabinet workshop last week -- was presented yesterday and classified as relating to human development; infrastructure development; economic development; sovereignty, security and rule of law; and good governance.

Full details have not been released but officials have said they do not include new taxes. Included are the fiscal responsibility, rationalization of fiscal incentives, procurement law amendment, anti-trust bill, national land use and the whistleblower measures.

"The measures support the [government’s] 16-point agenda which is to promote reforms," Ms. Valte later said in a telephone interview.

Pressed on the prospect of new tax laws, she replied: "The president has already said earlier that we will not be pushing for new taxes."

Ms. Valte said the final list could be trimmed to 25 or lower and that Mr. Aquino was also looking to judiciously exercise his prerogative to certify a bill as urgent.

Article IV, Section 26 of the Constitution states that "no bill passed by either House shall become a law unless it has passed three readings on separate days, and printed copies thereof in its final form have been distributed to its members three days before its passage, except when the President certifies to the necessity of its immediate enactment to meet a public calamity or emergency."

At the House of Representatives, meanwhile, 132 bills were identified yesterday by the chamber’s leaders as priority measures.

The list, said to be in line with priorities identified by Mr. Aquino in his State of the Nation Address last year, will be further trimmed to 20 before being submitted to the LEDAC, House Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte, Jr. said.

"We are trying to tear down or at least introduce to LEDAC a shorter number [of priority bills] which we would push for ... most of which are anyway not contrary to what is being pushed for in the Palace and the Senate," Mr. Belmonte said.

Deputy Speaker Lorenzo M. Tañada III added that the final House list, plus the measures that will be identified by Malacañang, "would beat the target for enactment into law by June" or before the end of the first regular session.

"I’m very confident that before the end of the session, before we adjourn on this session, we’ll be able to substantially pass at least 20 bills," Mr. Belmonte claimed.

"No new tax measures" were discussed, he said, with House legislators instead choosing to prioritize the streamlining of fiscal incentives granted to businesses and the fiscal responsibility bill which prohibits new spending not supported by revenue.

A meeting will be held next week to finalize the House list, Mr. Belmonte said.

At the Senate, a caucus was called a caucus yesterday to discuss bills that would be presented at the upcoming LEDAC meeting.

Senate Majority Floor Leader Vicente C. Sotto III said the chamber was taking a two-pronged approach by first asking senators to submit their top three priorities.

"Within the top three, we will prioritize at least one per senator ... We will submit to the committee chairmen the priorities of each member of the respective committees," Mr. Sotto said.

While there are 37 committees at the Senate, he said the final list -- expected to be ready this week -- would comprise no more than 23 bills.

"We will consolidate it together with the proposed legislative agenda of the Executive department," Mr. Sotto said. -- reports from A. M. G. Roa, N. M. Gonzales and J. D. Poblete

Tetangco upbeat 2011 GDP goal will be achieved

THE ECONOMY likely grew above target last year and could also outperform analysts’ expectations for 2011, the central bank chief yesterday said.

"We believe that 7% growth for 2010 is attainable given the Q1-Q3 (first to third quarter) ... actual growth rate and given the likely outcome of fourth-quarter performance," Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said in an e-mail to reporters.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 7.5% as of September and both the government and analysts expect the official 5-6% target for the year to be exceeded given surprisingly strong first half results.

The outlooks for 2011, however, diverge. The government has a 7-8% target but analysts expect growth to be well below that given continued global uncertainty.

Yesterday, HSBC Senior Vice-President Roland Gerard R. Veloso, Jr. told reporters he expected 2010 growth to have averaged 6.8%, easing to 5% this year.

A United Nations report released yesterday forecast an even slower 4.8% for this year.

Mr. Tetangco, however, said the right factors would allow this year’s goal to be achieved.

"We also believe that the 7-8% GDP growth target for 2011 is attainable, should consumption remain solid and investment gain further traction with the infrastructure programs of the government," he said.

Trade is expected to recover as the economies of the country’s trading partners improve, although much depends on how the global economy performs.

"A key risk to Philippine economic growth continues to be the uncertainty in the shape and speed of the global economic recovery, including whether it will continue to be multi-speed and therefore a fragile one," he said.

The government assumed a lower 5% GDP growth in its P1.645-trillion budget for this year. Officials have qualified that the higher 7-8% target would be due to the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme.

The government wants to bridge the country’s infrastructure gaps through PPP contracts that are expected to be bid out this year.

Mr. Veloso, however, expects the impact of PPP projects to "start to kick in and fuel the economy’s growth in 2012."

HSBC is helping the government by conducting road shows to pitch the PPP scheme to possible investors abroad.

"We... conducted a road show in London [last November] and we are having the next one in February in the Middle East," Mr. Veloso said.

The HSBC official also expects slower exports growth of 8% this year -- they were up 37% as of October last year -- with a pickup in the United States seen as a factor.

Unemployment was seen hitting 7.1% this year while the remittance growth forecast was set at 8.5%.


U.S. Stocks Rise on Commodities Rally, Europe Support Pledge

U.S. stocks rose, extending a seven- week rally, as gains in commodity producers and a pledge by European finance chiefs to support the region overshadowed lower-than-estimated profit at Citigroup Inc. and Steve Jobs’s leave of absence at Apple Inc.

Alcoa Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. rose at least 1.1 percent as the U.S. dollar fell, sending commodity prices higher. Boeing Co. rose 3.4 percent after the seventh postponement of the 787 Dreamliner matched the length projected by some analysts. Citigroup fell 6.4 percent after revenue from stock and bond trading fell more than at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Apple slumped 2.3 percent as Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs went on leave because of his health.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,295.02, its highest level since Aug. 28, 2008, at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.55 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,837.93.


Treasury 2- to 30-Year Yield Curve Steepens to Record on Inflation Outlook

The difference in yields between 2- and 30-year Treasuries widened to a record as investors demanded higher compensation for the longer-term debt on speculation inflation will accelerate.

The gap between 2- and 30-year yields reached 4.01 percentage points, the steepest slope to the so-called yield curve since Bloomberg records on the data began in 1977. The Federal Reserve is purchasing as much as $21.5 billion in U.S. debt this week as part of its program to boost growth.

“The two-year remains anchored to the Fed’s zero interest rate policy,” said Ian Lyngen, a government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “With the Fed’s own stated policy objective of spurring inflation, we would anticipate that calls for the Fed to begin its exit strategy will precede when it does, so in that context the long end will continue to underperform the two-year sector.”

Thirty-year bond yields rose five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 4.57 percent at 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. They touched 4.61 percent, the highest level since Dec. 16. The 4.25 percent securities maturing in November 2040 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 94 7/8.

The yield on the 10-year note increased four basis points to 3.37 percent, after earlier falling to 3.28 percent. The two- year note was little changed at 0.59 percent.

The spread between yields on U.S. 10-year notes and comparable TIPS, a gauge of traders’ outlook for consumer prices over the life of the securities, widened to 2.38 percent. It touched 1.47 percent in August.


Crude Oil Declines as IEA Says Global Inventories 'Relatively Comfortable'

Crude oil slipped to a one-week low after the International Energy Agency said supplies are ample, particularly in North America.

Crude declined after the Paris-based agency reported that inventory in the most developed economies “looks relatively comfortable” after dropping 8.3 million barrels in November to 2.74 billion, or 58.7 days worth of consumption. North American inventories were 3.2 percent above the five-year average.

“We’re well-supplied presently,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “With stocks well above the five-year average, we’re not in the woods yet.”

Oil for February delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $91.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since Jan. 11. Prices are unchanged this year.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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