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Thursday, January 20, 2011

Philippine Markets: 20 January 2011


20 January 2011

USD/PhP: 44.50 + 0.24 PSEi: 4006.24 - 33.32
USD/JPY: 82.16 PFINC: 907.55 - 4.46
EUR/USD: 1.3432 BDO: 54.95 - 0.25
GBP/USD: 1.5934 BPI: 57.00 - 0.25
PDSTF3M: 2.7091 MBT: 62.80 + 0.05
Prices as of 4:00pm Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


Local stock prices continue to slide
By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—Local stock prices tumbled further on Thursday as the sluggish investor sentiment seen in the last two days was aggravated by an overnight pullback in US equities.

The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index lost another 33.32 points or 0.82 percent to 4,006.24 as profit-taking continued to dominate the market alongside jitters concerning the capital gains tax. The market is wary of a prospective rise in interest rates as Asian countries face rising inflation.

Risk appetite has also been dampened by the Bureau of Internal Revenue's order to slap a 5-10 percent capital gains tax on shares of companies that fall below the minimum public float requirement.

The day's decline was led by the interest rate-sensitive property sector, which slumped by 2.8 percent as investors sold down Megaworld Corp. and Ayala Land Inc.

The industrial counter was likewise down by 1.1 percent.

Only the services counter bucked the downtrend.

There were 87 decliners, which outnumbered 56 advancers, while 34 stocks were unchanged.

Value turnover amounted to P5.3 billion.

Other stocks that fell on heavy volume were Aboitiz Power Corp., Manila Electric Co., International Container Terminal Services Inc., Jollibee Foods Corp., Universal Robina Corp., SM Investments Corp., Leisure & Resorts World Corp., Bank of the Philippine Islands, DMCI Holdings Inc. and Energy Development Corp.

Among the stocks that stayed afloat were Alliance Global Group Inc., Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., Cebu Air Inc., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Phoenix Petroleum Philippines, APC Group Inc. and Nickel Asia Corp.

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Index shed 12.64 points or 0.11 percent to 11,825.29 while the broader-based S&P500 and Nasdaq indices succumbed to the worst selldown seen in two months.

Morning Brief: 20 January 2011



BOP surplus hits record high of $14.4B
Bangko Sentral sees further improvement in 2011
By Michelle Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—The sustained increase in remittances, higher export earnings and a surge in foreign capital inflows lifted the surplus in the country’s balance of payments (BOP) to an all-time high of $14.4 billion in 2010.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on Wednesday said the BOP surplus cemented claims that 2010 was a banner year for the Philippines especially in terms of inflows of dollars and other foreign currencies.

The surplus, the highest ever recorded, was more than double the $6.42 billion registered in 2009.

For December alone, the surplus stood at $1.23 billion, up slightly from $1.22 billion in the same month of the previous year.

The BOP is a record of the commercial and financial transactions of the country with the rest of the world. A surplus, which indicates that the inflows are more than the outflows, adds to the Philippines’ total reserves of foreign currencies or the gross international reserves (GIR), which reflects the country’s ability to pay for imports and services and settle maturing debts to foreign creditors.

The central bank earlier reported that the country’s GIR registered a historic high of $62.1 billion as of the end of 2010.


Asian FDI gains noted by UN; investors bypassing Philippines?

SEVERAL Southeast Asian economies enjoyed as much as a five-fold increase in foreign direct investments (FDI) last year while the Philippines was recording a decline, United Nations data released on Monday showed.

The national elections in May and the ensuing government transition, said local observers, possibly caused the hesitation, which was also exacerbated by the country’s allegedly unattractive business climate.

FDI flows into Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore in 2010 were estimated to have surged by triple-digit rates from yearago levels as Southeast Asia was among the regions that led the global economic recovery, the UN Commission on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its Global Investment Trends Monitor.

Malaysia was projected to have grown its FDI by 410% to $7 billion while Indonesia similarly enjoyed a 163% rise to $12.8 billion, the UN agency said, annualizing available data for the three quarters of 2010.

Singapore, meanwhile, likely saw FDI levels grow by 123% to 16.8 billion.

These improvements allowed inflows to South, East and Southeast Asia to rise by 17.8% to $274.6 billion while the global average flattened to $1.122 trillion in the same year, the UNCTAD said.

Full-year estimates for the Philippines were not included in the report but the country, according to latest central bank data, recorded an annual 36.5% decline in FDI as of October.

The disparity was likely caused by last year’s elections, University of the Philippines economist Benjamin C. Diokno said in a text message yesterday.

"Investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude given the change in political leadership," Mr. Diokno said.

He added that the high level of investments already in neighboring economies allowed them to enjoy a faster recovery as well.

Foreign business group officials echoed this but also noted that the country’s perennial lack of competitiveness was also to blame.

"We’re not competitive," American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Executive Director Robert M. Sears said in a telephone interview.

"It behooves the administration to realize that all three [branches of government] from the executive, legislative and judiciary have to work together to improve the country’s investment image."

Long-proposed moves to improve infrastructure have just started, European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Executive Director Henry J. Schumacher said in a text message. -- Jessica Anne D. Hermosa


It’s going to be a rainy summer; no dry season
By Kristine L. Alave
Philippine Daily Inquirer


MANILA, Philippines—Summer is supposed to be the dry season in the country. Not this year.

It’s going to be a wet summer that will have typhoons due to the La Niña phenomenon that has been spawning rains in the Philippines since December, the weather bureau said Wednesday.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said large parts of the country would get above-normal rainfall in the summer months of March, April and May.

Tropical cyclones

“This means that we expect to have a rainy summer. We expect to have tropical cyclones,” Flaviana Hilario, chief of PAGASA’s climatology and agrometeorology division.

She said weather models and advisories from various national meteorological centers forecast La Niña to last until May, with the peak occurring in February.

The months from March to May are considered the height of summer in the country, when millions troop to the beaches. These months are usually the driest months, with typhoons making an appearance only in mid-May.

Typhoons in March-May

Citing meteorological models, Hilario said there was a “slim chance” that a typhoon would enter the Philippine area of responsibility next month.

PAGASA expects one typhoon in March, two in April and another two in May. June, the start of the rainy season, is expected to have two to three typhoons, Hilario said.

La Niña arrived in the Philippines last October. The phenomenon, the opposite of El Niño, occurs when the surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean gets colder. El Niño refers to the increase in the surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean.

The Philippines will be under heavy cloud and will experience cooler temperatures in the next five days as a result of the combined effects of the tail end of the cold front and the northeast monsoon.


U.S. Stocks Retreat as S&P 500 Index Posts Biggest Decline Since November

U.S. stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest drop since November, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. failed to beat profit estimates and housing starts slid more than forecast.

Goldman Sachs slumped 4.7 percent, the most since April, after earnings tumbled 52 percent because of lower revenue from trading andinvestment banking. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes retreated 2.9 percent. American Express Co. declined 2.4 percent following a lower-than-estimated profit forecast. International Business Machines Corp. rallied 3.4 percent after reporting earnings that topped analysts’ projections.

The S&P 500 slumped 1 percent to 1,281.92 at 4 p.m. in New York after a two-day rally of 0.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagedeclined 12.64 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,825.29 as IBM’s advance limited losses. The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, rose 9.1 percent, the most since November, to 17.31.


Treasuries Gain as Stocks Fall; 10-Year Yield Range Rises From 2-Month Low

Treasuries rose, with 10-year note yields breaking out of the narrowest range in two months, as U.S. stocks fell after a report showed housing starts declined more than forecast in December.

The extra yield 30-year bonds offer over two-year notes was near a record, indicating investors are demanding compensation for the risk that inflation will accelerate. The Federal Reserve purchased $7.7 billion in Treasuries. Volume in the U.S. debt market was the lowest in more than a week.

“Given the backup in rates yesterday, lower stock prices and no news coming out of Europe, you get an environment where the buyers step in,” said Kevin Flanagan, Purchase, New York- based chief fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.

The benchmark 10-year note yield decreased three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.34 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. It slid earlier to 3.32 percent and rose to 3.39 percent. It reached 3.41 percent yesterday, the highest level since Jan. 12. The 2.625 percent security due in November 2020 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 94 2/32.

Ten-year yields earlier traded in a 4.7 basis-point range between 3.39 percent and 3.34 percent, the narrowest gap since Nov. 11.




Oil Declines to Lowest Level in a Week on Drop in Housing Starts, Equities

Oil fell to a one-week low as builders began work on fewer U.S. homes than projected in December, a signal that the economic recovery may be slowing.

Futures decreased 0.6 percent as the housing starts slipped to the lowest level in 14 months and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated from a two-year high. Oil flows in the Trans Alaska Pipeline System increased to the highest rate since Jan. 7, the day before a leak shut the line.

“It’s not a positive economic number, and I think the market is still keying on the economic factors,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re watching how the dollar and the equities move.”

Oil for February delivery fell 52 cents to settle at $90.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since Jan. 10. Futures have risen 15 percent in the past year.

Prices declined from the settlement after the American Petroleum Institute reported at 4:30 p.m. that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles increased 3.53 million barrels to 340.6 million. February oil fell 61 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $90.77 a barrel in electronic trading at 4:31 p.m.

Housing starts dropped 4.3 percent last month to a 529,000 annual rate, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 550,000 rate.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Morning Brief: 19 January 2011




No decision yet on priorities

A CABINET MEETING convened yesterday to determine Malacañang’s legislative priorities ended with no decisions being reached as President Benigno S. C. Aquino III called for further review of a preliminary list.

The Palace, however, still expects to soon finalize the agenda as an official said a Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC) meeting could push through before the end of the month.

"The president wants a little more time ... He wanted to see more studies and wanted some figures on some particular measures," deputy spokesperson Abigail D. Valte said.

"I think the target [date for the LEDAC meeting] will still be the end of the month," she added.

The initial list of 32 measures -- drawn up in a Cabinet workshop last week -- was presented yesterday and classified as relating to human development; infrastructure development; economic development; sovereignty, security and rule of law; and good governance.

Full details have not been released but officials have said they do not include new taxes. Included are the fiscal responsibility, rationalization of fiscal incentives, procurement law amendment, anti-trust bill, national land use and the whistleblower measures.

"The measures support the [government’s] 16-point agenda which is to promote reforms," Ms. Valte later said in a telephone interview.

Pressed on the prospect of new tax laws, she replied: "The president has already said earlier that we will not be pushing for new taxes."

Ms. Valte said the final list could be trimmed to 25 or lower and that Mr. Aquino was also looking to judiciously exercise his prerogative to certify a bill as urgent.

Article IV, Section 26 of the Constitution states that "no bill passed by either House shall become a law unless it has passed three readings on separate days, and printed copies thereof in its final form have been distributed to its members three days before its passage, except when the President certifies to the necessity of its immediate enactment to meet a public calamity or emergency."

At the House of Representatives, meanwhile, 132 bills were identified yesterday by the chamber’s leaders as priority measures.

The list, said to be in line with priorities identified by Mr. Aquino in his State of the Nation Address last year, will be further trimmed to 20 before being submitted to the LEDAC, House Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte, Jr. said.

"We are trying to tear down or at least introduce to LEDAC a shorter number [of priority bills] which we would push for ... most of which are anyway not contrary to what is being pushed for in the Palace and the Senate," Mr. Belmonte said.

Deputy Speaker Lorenzo M. Tañada III added that the final House list, plus the measures that will be identified by Malacañang, "would beat the target for enactment into law by June" or before the end of the first regular session.

"I’m very confident that before the end of the session, before we adjourn on this session, we’ll be able to substantially pass at least 20 bills," Mr. Belmonte claimed.

"No new tax measures" were discussed, he said, with House legislators instead choosing to prioritize the streamlining of fiscal incentives granted to businesses and the fiscal responsibility bill which prohibits new spending not supported by revenue.

A meeting will be held next week to finalize the House list, Mr. Belmonte said.

At the Senate, a caucus was called a caucus yesterday to discuss bills that would be presented at the upcoming LEDAC meeting.

Senate Majority Floor Leader Vicente C. Sotto III said the chamber was taking a two-pronged approach by first asking senators to submit their top three priorities.

"Within the top three, we will prioritize at least one per senator ... We will submit to the committee chairmen the priorities of each member of the respective committees," Mr. Sotto said.

While there are 37 committees at the Senate, he said the final list -- expected to be ready this week -- would comprise no more than 23 bills.

"We will consolidate it together with the proposed legislative agenda of the Executive department," Mr. Sotto said. -- reports from A. M. G. Roa, N. M. Gonzales and J. D. Poblete

Tetangco upbeat 2011 GDP goal will be achieved

THE ECONOMY likely grew above target last year and could also outperform analysts’ expectations for 2011, the central bank chief yesterday said.

"We believe that 7% growth for 2010 is attainable given the Q1-Q3 (first to third quarter) ... actual growth rate and given the likely outcome of fourth-quarter performance," Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said in an e-mail to reporters.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 7.5% as of September and both the government and analysts expect the official 5-6% target for the year to be exceeded given surprisingly strong first half results.

The outlooks for 2011, however, diverge. The government has a 7-8% target but analysts expect growth to be well below that given continued global uncertainty.

Yesterday, HSBC Senior Vice-President Roland Gerard R. Veloso, Jr. told reporters he expected 2010 growth to have averaged 6.8%, easing to 5% this year.

A United Nations report released yesterday forecast an even slower 4.8% for this year.

Mr. Tetangco, however, said the right factors would allow this year’s goal to be achieved.

"We also believe that the 7-8% GDP growth target for 2011 is attainable, should consumption remain solid and investment gain further traction with the infrastructure programs of the government," he said.

Trade is expected to recover as the economies of the country’s trading partners improve, although much depends on how the global economy performs.

"A key risk to Philippine economic growth continues to be the uncertainty in the shape and speed of the global economic recovery, including whether it will continue to be multi-speed and therefore a fragile one," he said.

The government assumed a lower 5% GDP growth in its P1.645-trillion budget for this year. Officials have qualified that the higher 7-8% target would be due to the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme.

The government wants to bridge the country’s infrastructure gaps through PPP contracts that are expected to be bid out this year.

Mr. Veloso, however, expects the impact of PPP projects to "start to kick in and fuel the economy’s growth in 2012."

HSBC is helping the government by conducting road shows to pitch the PPP scheme to possible investors abroad.

"We... conducted a road show in London [last November] and we are having the next one in February in the Middle East," Mr. Veloso said.

The HSBC official also expects slower exports growth of 8% this year -- they were up 37% as of October last year -- with a pickup in the United States seen as a factor.

Unemployment was seen hitting 7.1% this year while the remittance growth forecast was set at 8.5%.


U.S. Stocks Rise on Commodities Rally, Europe Support Pledge

U.S. stocks rose, extending a seven- week rally, as gains in commodity producers and a pledge by European finance chiefs to support the region overshadowed lower-than-estimated profit at Citigroup Inc. and Steve Jobs’s leave of absence at Apple Inc.

Alcoa Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. rose at least 1.1 percent as the U.S. dollar fell, sending commodity prices higher. Boeing Co. rose 3.4 percent after the seventh postponement of the 787 Dreamliner matched the length projected by some analysts. Citigroup fell 6.4 percent after revenue from stock and bond trading fell more than at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Apple slumped 2.3 percent as Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs went on leave because of his health.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,295.02, its highest level since Aug. 28, 2008, at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.55 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,837.93.


Treasury 2- to 30-Year Yield Curve Steepens to Record on Inflation Outlook

The difference in yields between 2- and 30-year Treasuries widened to a record as investors demanded higher compensation for the longer-term debt on speculation inflation will accelerate.

The gap between 2- and 30-year yields reached 4.01 percentage points, the steepest slope to the so-called yield curve since Bloomberg records on the data began in 1977. The Federal Reserve is purchasing as much as $21.5 billion in U.S. debt this week as part of its program to boost growth.

“The two-year remains anchored to the Fed’s zero interest rate policy,” said Ian Lyngen, a government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “With the Fed’s own stated policy objective of spurring inflation, we would anticipate that calls for the Fed to begin its exit strategy will precede when it does, so in that context the long end will continue to underperform the two-year sector.”

Thirty-year bond yields rose five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 4.57 percent at 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. They touched 4.61 percent, the highest level since Dec. 16. The 4.25 percent securities maturing in November 2040 fell 23/32, or $7.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 94 7/8.

The yield on the 10-year note increased four basis points to 3.37 percent, after earlier falling to 3.28 percent. The two- year note was little changed at 0.59 percent.

The spread between yields on U.S. 10-year notes and comparable TIPS, a gauge of traders’ outlook for consumer prices over the life of the securities, widened to 2.38 percent. It touched 1.47 percent in August.


Crude Oil Declines as IEA Says Global Inventories 'Relatively Comfortable'

Crude oil slipped to a one-week low after the International Energy Agency said supplies are ample, particularly in North America.

Crude declined after the Paris-based agency reported that inventory in the most developed economies “looks relatively comfortable” after dropping 8.3 million barrels in November to 2.74 billion, or 58.7 days worth of consumption. North American inventories were 3.2 percent above the five-year average.

“We’re well-supplied presently,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “With stocks well above the five-year average, we’re not in the woods yet.”

Oil for February delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $91.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since Jan. 11. Prices are unchanged this year.



Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, www.inquirer.net, www.philstar.com, www.bworldonline.com, www.cnnmoney.com

Jonathan Ravelas
Chief Market Strategist
(632) 858-3145

Rhys Cruz
Junior Researcher

(632) 858-3001
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